elioe's tracks

These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Alvin Barbara Cosme TD 4-E Dalila Erick Flossie Gil Henriette Ivo Juliette Akoni Kiko Lorena Mario Narda Octave Priscilla Raymond TD 21-E ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2019, I analysed 721 GEFS runs. I made 134 tracks of storms, that actually formed. I made 212 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 177 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 384 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 5 hits, 21 false detections and 7 misses. 15 available position comparisons produce an average error of 125 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 14 hits, 29 false detections and 13 misses. 24 available position comparisons produce an average error of 133 nautical miles. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 23 hits,...

These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Andrea Barry TD 3 Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa TD 15 Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2019, I analysed 721 GEFS runs. I made 74 tracks of storms, that actually formed. I made 296 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 218 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 384 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 6 hits, 10 false detections and 8 misses. 10 available position comparisons produce an average error of 55 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 10 hits, 14 false detections and 14 misses. 14 available position comparisons produce an average error of 84 nautical miles. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 9 hits,...

I falsely detected tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of the equator and east of 140W longitude) 11 times in November and December of 2019. During that period, I falsely detected crossover from Atlantic to East Pacific thrice. Tracks were made of nine systems. In the calculations, crossover into Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is also considered equal to dissipation.   At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 6 days ( 14...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 15 times in November and December of 2019. Tracks were made of nine systems.   Entering the East Pacific is considered equal to dissipation in the calculations. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 1 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 hour...

I falsely detected tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of the equator and east of 140W longitude) 27 times in August thru October of 2019. During that period, I falsely detected crossover from Atlantic to East Pacific twice. Tracks were made of thirteen systems. In the calculations, crossover into Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is also considered equal to dissipation. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 6 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 6 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there was 8 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there was 7 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours)...