elioe's tracks

I made seven tracks of Tropical Storm Boris, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 18 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. All of the detections were at short lead times. Exiting the EPac tracking map through its left edge is considered equal to dissipation for the purpose of this verification. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 22, 00Z thru June 28, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the seven tracks (made before operationally recogn

I made no tracks of Dolly before operationally assessed cyclogenesis. I made one track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 24 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 20, 12Z thru June 24, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable. In the 24 cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 24 complete misses), range, average and median of peak intensity were -2.

I made 16 sets of tracks of Tropical Storm Cristobal, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. In one analysis, there were two tracks, based on assumption, that original center would dissipate overland in Mexico and another one would emerge from Yucatan. I made nine more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 29 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Almost all of the detections were at short lead times. For position errors, Amanda is considered to be the precursor of Cristobal. However, since Amanda is in the wrong basin, it is not considered a TC, when calculating hits, false detections and misses. As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 28, 18Z thru June 10, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define

I made 26 tracks of Tropical Storm Amanda, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 22 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Originally the movement was projected to be to the west, resulting often in very large position errors. For position errors, Cristobal is considered to be the remnants of Amanda. However, since Cristobal is in the wrong basin, it is not considered a TC (regenerated Amanda), when calculating hits, false detections and misses. As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 28, 18Z thru June 8, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Any further additions to the best track of Cristobal won't affect these calculations. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropic