elioe's tracks

I made fourteen tracks of Hurricane Genevieve, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point. Within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were no instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 14, 06Z thru August 21, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the fourteen tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 12, 06Z and August 16, 18Z. Average was August 14, 18Z and median was August 15, 09Z. In the fourteen cases (14 tracks, befo...

I made six tracks of Tropical Storm Fausto, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eight instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Exiting the margin of East Pacific tracking map through left edge (about 164 W) is considered equal to dissipation for the purposes of this verification. Invest 93E and Invest 94E were competing low level centers on the same trough. Eventually it was 94E, that became a tropical cyclone (Fausto). Since they were so closely related, for the purposes of this verification, tracks will be considered to depict Fausto, even if they correspond more closely to 93E. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 12, 00Z thru August 17, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories....

I made nine tracks of Tropical Depression Ten-E, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Exiting the margin of East Pacific tracking map through left edge (about 164 W) is considered equal to dissipation for the purposes of this verification. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 11, 06Z thru August 17, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the nine tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis...

I made five tracks of Hurricane Elida, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The tracks were consistently too far south, and cyclogenesis was too late. As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available August 6, 18Z thru August 14, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 9, 06Z and August 11...

I made seven tracks of Hurricane Douglas, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Peak intensity was consistently underestimated, and Douglas was expected to remain too far south. Exiting the margin of East Pacific tracking map through left edge (about 164 W) is considered equal to dissipation for the purposes of this verification. As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available July 18, 12Z thru July 29, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtr...