elioe's tracks

Above: Possibly the most DOOMy East Pacific track of 2020. Category 4 landfall in eastern Oaxaca didn't come even near reality however. In real life, this system was Cristina, and it missed land altogether.   These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: 01E Amanda Boris 04E Cristina 06E Unnamed (07E) Douglas Elida 10E Fausto Genevieve Hernan Iselle Julio Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odalys Polo ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2020, I analysed 557 model cycles. I made 220 tracks of storms, that actually formed later. I made 266 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 148 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 480 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 39 hits, 15 false detections and 6 misses. 51 available position comparisons produce an average error of 45 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 3...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in (or crossover into) East Pacific (north of equator and east of 140 degrees west) 50 times in November thru December of 2020. Tracks were made of 10 systems. In the calculations, crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 0 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 8 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 6 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 6 false detection...