elioe's tracks

Above: Possibly the most ridiculous Eastern Pacific track of 2021. No, Kevin didn't reach 215 mph winds... These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique Felicia Guillermo Hilda Jimena Ignacio Kevin Linda Marty Nora Olaf Pamela Rick Terry Sandra ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2021, I analysed 328 model cycles. I made 158 tracks of storms, that actually formed later. I made 105 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 150 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 504 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 30 hits, 15 false detections and 5 misses. 43 available position comparisons produce an average error of 53 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 41 hits, 17 false detections and 2 misses. 49 available position comparisons produce an average error of 82 nau...

  Above: Possibly the most ridiculous Atlantic track of 2021. Yes, Sam became strong. But 200 mph? Nah. These tracks, or lack of those, have been earlier discussed in separate blog entries system-wise or time-wise: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Kate Julian Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda ghost storms Jan-May ghost storms Jun-Jul ghost storms Aug-Oct ghost storms Nov-Dec In 2021, I analysed 328 model cycles. I made 60 tracks of storms, that actually formed later. I made 110 tracks of ghost storms. I missed 249 times cyclogenesis, which actually happened within 504 hours. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 22 hits, 9 false detections and 7 misses. 31 available position comparisons produce an average error of 59 nautical miles. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 20 hits, 22 false detections and 12 misses. 39 available position comparisons produce an average error of 92 nautic...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of equator and east of 140 degrees west) 3 times in November thru December of 2021. Tracks were made of 1 system. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 0 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there was 0 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 11 days ( 264 hours), there was 1...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 9 times in November thru December of 2021. Tracks were made of 3 systems. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 2 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 9 days ( 216 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 10 days ( 240 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 11 days ( 264 hours), there were 0 false detecti...

2022 Atlantic hurricane season named storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Predictions as of June 1, 2022 (final) Deadline for new and revised predictions was May 31st, 2022 at 23:59 UTC italics indicates midpoint of a range --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Alan's Tropical Severe Weather Central 17-9-4 (@AlanSevere) Anthony 19-9-5 (@AnthonyCyclone) ark! 19-7-3.5 (@plutoenjoyer) Athena 18-8-6 BaltimoreBrian 16-9-4 Dan Harkins C-137 18-9-4 (@HurricaneSats) Danny Alvarez 18-9-5 (@lildanny0504) David Shaw 10-5-1 (@DavidSh90961360) Daytona Beach Watcher 18-7-4 DC1958 31-11-5 (@DC19583) Doctor ennykinpa 18-4-1 (@ennykinpa) elioe 16-8-3 (@elioeFIN) floridacane 21-11-5 (@FloridaCane100) Freedom Elon is the best Elon Musk 19-9-4 (@Corneiten) Fuck Elon Musk 35-29-9 (@JosMuleBarn1) Giovany 20-9-4 (@AzureGearsts) Harold Carr 18-8-3 (@HaroldCarr10) Into the Tropics 16-6-3 (@TropicsInto) Jack Raclaw 21-9-4 (@JackRa...