elioe's tracks

I made one track of Hurricane Grace, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were twelve instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Marty will be considered continuation of Grace for position error calculations - however, it will not be considered Grace for calculation of hits, misses and false detections. As of this analysis, best track positions for Grace, as well as best track / tropical cyclone report positions for Marty, are available August 9, 18Z thru August 27, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as ...

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Fred, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two tracks after cyclogenesis. Within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 15 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 7, 18Z thru August 20, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable. In the 16 cases (1 track, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 15 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 an...

I made three tracks of Hurricane Elsa, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made four more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eighteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 28, 12Z thru July 9, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 30, 12Z and July 2, 18Z. Average was July 1, 10Z and median was July 1, 00Z. In the 21 cases (3 tracks, before the tr...

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of equator and east of 140 degrees west) 51 times in January thru May 2021. In the same time period, I falsely detected 4 crossovers from North Atlantic. Tracks were made of 14 systems. In the calculations, crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. At the lead time of 1 day ( 24 hours), there were 0 false detections. At the lead time of 2 days ( 48 hours), there was 1 false detection. At the lead time of 3 days ( 72 hours), there were 3 false detections. At the lead time of 4 days ( 96 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 5 days ( 120 hours), there were 4 false detections. At the lead time of 6 days ( 144 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 7 days ( 168 hours), there were 5 false detections. At the lead time of 8 days ( 192 hours), there were 8 false detections. At the lead time of ...