elioe's tracks

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Ana, before it was assessed as a subtropical cyclone. I made three tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 28 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 19, 00Z thru May 24, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". Statistics about formation time are not applicable. In the 28 cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that (sub)tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 28 complete misses), range, average and median of peak inte...

I made 29 tracks of Tropical Storm Andres from 25 model cycles, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. In four model cycles, there were two non-contemporary tracks identifiable as Andres - from now on, those will be counted as one. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 15 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available May 6, 12Z thru May 11, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the 25 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ...

As I'm writing this, Zeta has been upgraded to a major hurricane, bringing official season total to 30-14-7. This is likely to remain the final total. The winner's name has been clear since Iota dissipated in November, but let's repeat it once again... Congratulations Afrim Alimeti !!!!!   The combined error is calculated as follows: sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )   where E_ns is error in number of nameable storms, E_hu is error in number of hurricanes and E_mh is error in number of of major hurricanes. The following has the format of ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction   1. / 28 / 14 / 7 / 0.57496  Afrim Alimeti   2. / 24 / 14 / 7 / 1.72488  bigwes6844   3. / 24 / 11 / 7 / 2.09319  jandrew   4. / 23 / 13 / 6 / 2.13921  Hurricane Jose   5. / 26 / 14 / 4 / 2.15769  cRR K...