Ranking of 2020 Atlantic hurricane season predictions

As I'm writing this, Zeta has been upgraded to a major hurricane, bringing official season total to 30-14-7. This is likely to remain the final total. The winner's name has been clear since Iota dissipated in November, but let's repeat it once again...

Congratulations

Afrim Alimeti

!!!!! 

The combined error is calculated as follows:

sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )
 
where E_ns is error in number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error in number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error in number of of major hurricanes.

The following has the format of

ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction

  1. / 28 / 14 / 7 / 0.57496  Afrim Alimeti
  2. / 24 / 14 / 7 / 1.72488  bigwes6844
  3. / 24 / 11 / 7 / 2.09319  jandrew
  4. / 23 / 13 / 6 / 2.13921  Hurricane Jose
  5. / 26 / 14 / 4 / 2.15769  cRR Kampen
  6. / 23 / 12 / 7 / 2.16208  Brandon Thomason
  7. / 22 / 13 / 7 / 2.33356  Cyclone2016
  7. / 22 / 13 / 7 / 2.33356  earthisanocean
  9. / 22 / 14 / 6 / 2.37900  Uziel Snyder
 10. / 25 / 10 / 5 / 2.45919  climateNHBSH
 11. / 22 / 12 / 8 / 2.50692  Belleair Beach Bum Natalie
 11. / 22 / 12 / 6 / 2.50692  bluegill
 11. / 22 / 12 / 6 / 2.50692  Samuel Lobdell
 14. / 21.5 / 12.5 /  8 / 2.58708  Storm Master
 15. / 22 / 11 / 6 / 2.65817  Agent Goat
 15. / 22 / 11 / 6 / 2.65817  kramer56dk
 15. / 22 / 11 / 6 / 2.65817  Michael Anderson
 15. / 22 / 11 / 6 / 2.65817  Vanessa Hall
 19. / 21 / 13 / 8 / 2.68716  fyrebyrd042
 20. / 21 / 16 / 7 / 2.70540  micatnight
 21. / 21 / 12 / 6 / 2.77301  Cameron Masiello
 21. / 21 / 12 / 6 / 2.77301  NHWX
 23. / 20 / 13 / 7 / 2.90185  Tornado6042008X
 24. / 20 / 14 / 6 / 2.93851  Jason M Weed
 25. / 20 / 12 / 6 / 3.04300  Justabitowind
 25. / 20 / 12 / 6 / 3.04300  Losmarlins
 27. / 21 / 11 / 5 / 3.09547  Cam Pine (Camerooski)
 27. / 21 / 11 / 5 / 3.09547  capt deez
 27. / 21 / 11 / 5 / 3.09547  gulfcoaster
 30. / 23 / 10 / 4 / 3.14371  James Hinna
 31. / 20 / 11 / 6 / 3.16877  GTstormChaserCaleb
 31. / 20 / 11 / 6 / 3.16877  Native Son
 31. / 20 / 11 / 6 / 3.16877  typhonium
 34. / 19 / 14 / 6 / 3.22031  elsbethie
 35. / 20 / 12 / 5 / 3.22040  Reed Michaelson @ Los Angeles
 36. / 20 / 12 / 5 / 3.22040  Skyepony
 37. / 19.5 / 11.5 / 6 / 3.23396  Pablo Rafael Martins
 38. / 19 / 12 / 7 / 3.25960  llamaluvr
 39. / 20 / 10 / 6 / 3.33689  Alessa (StormTracker)
 39. / 20 / 10 / 6 / 3.33689  ÇYÇL🌀NICEĐĐZ
 39. / 20 / 10 / 6 / 3.33689  Mike
 42. / 20 / 11 / 5 / 3.33949  Keytom
 42. / 20 / 11 / 5 / 3.33949  Seattleite
 44. / 19 / 11 / 6 / 3.43171  Mr.Tornadochase
 44. / 19 / 11 / 6 / 3.43171  OctoberHurricane
 46. / 19.5 / 11 / 5 / 3.46400  wunderguycayman@WU
 47. / 20 / 9 / 7 / 3.48865  General Chow
 48. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 3.49942  bear90ofs
 48. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 3.49942  swflurker
 50. / 21 / 10 / 4 / 3.53943  Meteorologist2020
 51. / 19 / 10 / 6 / 3.58753  MightyOracle
 51. / 19 / 10 / 6 / 3.58753  Prouss Rouss
 51. / 19 / 10 / 6 / 3.58753  Rd003
 51. / 19 / 10 / 6 / 3.58753  Time Keeps Running
 55. / 19 / 11 / 5 / 3.58995  Mr. Neutral
 55. / 19 / 11 / 5 / 3.58995  river_of_stars
 57. / 18 / 12 / 6 / 3.59113  Allen_Wentz
 57. / 18 / 12 / 8 / 3.59113  K2
 59. / 28 / 19 / 12 / 3.67370  Ron
 60. / 20 / 9 / 5 / 3.69489  HydroGeek
 61. / 20 / 9 / 5 / 3.69489  Sue DM Russell Kaufman
 62. / 21 / 9 / 4 / 3.73280  StacHoumaLa
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  BRsquatter77
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  Coastal Carolina
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  gunhilda
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  hurricane_guineapig
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  Lostboy63
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  Robstxwx19
 63. / 19 / 10 / 5 / 3.73918  SLU
 70. / 20 / 10 / 4 / 3.75470  bob therriault
 70. / 20 / 10 / 4 / 3.75470  Zed98
 72. / 17 / 13 / 7 / 3.75808  daddyjames
 73. / 22 / 8 / 4 / 3.77460  Allan Reed
 74. / 19 / 9 / 6 / 3.77844  elioe
 74. / 19 / 9 / 6 / 3.77844  jiiski
 76. / 17 / 15 / 6 / 3.80704  Dirk
 77. / 18 / 10 / 6 / 3.84333  Hank Hurlston
 78. / 18 / 11 / 5 / 3.84559  NeGoM (JNichols)
 78. / 18 / 11 / 5 / 3.84559  Stella
 80. / 19 / 9 / 5 / 3.92272  Brandyn LaFon
 80. / 19 / 9 / 5 / 3.92272  Glendon Mairs
 80. / 19 / 9 / 5 / 3.92272  lowcountrynoob
 80. / 19 / 9 / 5 / 3.92272  Lurkindanger
 84. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 3.93752  cigazze
 84. / 20 / 9 / 4 / 3.93752  HurricaneWatch247
 86. / 19 / 10 / 4 / 3.97911  Bupsin
 87. / 18 / 10 / 5 / 3.98526  KyonPR
 87. / 18 / 10 / 5 / 3.98526  StayAlive77
 87. / 18 / 10 / 5 / 3.98526  Weather Dude
 90. / 19.5 / 10 / 3.5 /  4.01853  Weatherman1228
 91. / 18 / 9 / 6 / 4.02212  Sadie La Rue
 92. / 18.5 / 10 / 4 / 4.09427  NotSpa☈ta (Alex)
 93. / 17 / 10 / 6 / 4.10333  JRRP
 94. / 22 / 8 / 3 / 4.10368  Astreja
 95. / 17 / 11 / 5 / 4.10544  Barbara Sabbeth
 95. / 17 / 11 / 5 / 4.10544  Michael Paul
 95. / 17 / 11 / 5 / 4.10544  WXManWannabe
 98. / 17.5 / 10 / 5 / 4.11032  Hyper
 99. / 19 / 8 / 5 / 4.13600  aquak9
 99. / 19 / 8 / 5 / 4.13600  GateKeeper
 99. / 19 / 8 / 5 / 4.13600  GatorWX
 102. / 20 / 8 / 4 / 4.15004  Wannabebeachbum
 103. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 4.15206  Caribboy
 103. / 19 / 9 / 4 / 4.15206  SunnyDaysFl
 105. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 4.15795  TheCrystalQueen
 105. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 4.15795  Vintage Cars
 105. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 4.15795  WxRob87
 108. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 4.21119  ejswine
 108. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 4.21119  HuriFisher
 108. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 4.21119  Jon Tay-catch
 108. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 4.21119  Jordan Brown
 108. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 4.21119  StormChaser19
 113. / 17 / 10 / 5 / 4.23656  Bret
 113. / 17 / 10 / 5 / 4.23656  envoirment
 113. / 17 / 10 / 5 / 4.23656  Jrock74
 113. / 17 / 10 / 5 / 4.23656  Lemuel Taylor
 117. / 18.5 / 8.5 / 4.5 / 4.23924  Charlestonweather
 118. / 17 / 9 / 6 / 4.27125  not a machine
 119. / 17 / 11 / 4 / 4.32510  CHS-IOP
 120. / 19 / 8 / 4 / 4.35412  BarbaraGermany
 120. / 19 / 8 / 4 / 4.35412  Nature Files
 120. / 19 / 8 / 4 / 4.35412  thisisacreativename
 123. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 4.35974  Kallenjr69
 123. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 4.35974  oldnewmex
 123. / 18 / 8 / 5 / 4.35974  rmbjoe5806
 126. / 19 / 7 / 5 / 4.37467  SRQfl
 127. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 4.37498  CarCar819
 127. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 4.37498  Caribbean Weather Center
 127. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 4.37498  ChrisdCane
 127. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 4.37498  Grothar(formerly Grothar)
 127. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 4.37498  Mouse ears
 132. / 17 / 9 / 5 / 4.39939  Arif Samad
 133. / 17 / 10 / 4 / 4.44975  Alexander Emmett
 133. / 17 / 10 / 4 / 4.44975  Gene
 135. / 19 / 9 / 3 / 4.45333  mitthbevnuruodo
 136. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 4.56718  Caleb Hardee
 136. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 4.56718  Nash40
 136. / 18 / 8 / 4 / 4.56718  Tabludama
 139. / 19 / 7 / 4 / 4.58144  weathergod
 140. / 17 / 8.5 / 4.5 / 4.58348  DMac
 141. / 18 / 7 / 5 / 4.58678  Athena
 142. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 4.60505  Abacosurf
 142. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 4.60505  Joseph Sturch 97L(Ravensfan)
 142. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 4.60505  supercane7
 142. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 4.60505  TropicalAnalystwx13
 146. / 15 / 10 / 6 / 4.63308  101010edwebster
 147. / 16 / 9 / 5 / 4.64608  TiggerHurricanes2001
 147. / 16 / 9 / 5 / 4.64608  WeatherkidJoe23
 149. / 18 / 9 / 3 / 4.66187  MahNEFL
 150. / 17 / 7 / 6 / 4.68973  Don Murray
 151. / 17 / 8.5 / 4 / 4.69328  HurricaneFan
 151. / 17 / 8.5 / 4 / 4.69328  TheReaperofCanada
 153. / 17 / 10 / 3 / 4.73211  Gr8lakebreeze
 154. / 18 / 7 / 4 / 4.78439  Craig Appleman
 154. / 18 / 7 / 4 / 4.78439  CrazyForStormsGuy
 154. / 18 / 7 / 4 / 4.78439  Hemlock Philosopher
 157. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 4.78803  hurricaneivan
 157. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 4.78803  MAweatherboy1
 157. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 4.78803  WXcolorado
 160. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 4.82751  guitarmanaaw
 160. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 4.82751  weatherman_53
 162. / 18 / 6 / 5 / 4.83553  Dave Ranning
 162. / 18 / 6 / 5 / 4.83553  Yvette Helen Owes
 164. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 4.84127  BaltimoreBrian
 164. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 4.84127  Weatherfan1013
 166. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 4.84270  all4hurricanes
 166. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 4.84270  DopplerShifted
 166. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 4.84270  MidwayLakeGeorge
 166. / 18 / 8 / 3 / 4.84270  Richard Butler
 170. / 21 / 7 / 2 / 4.85898  wartsttocs
 171. / 17 / 9 / 3 / 4.87843  DaytonaBeachWatcher
 171. / 17 / 9 / 3 / 4.87843  Patrap
 171. / 17 / 9 / 3 / 4.87843  RPhilMan1
 171. / 17 / 9 / 3 / 4.87843  WxDude (aquak9 my hero)
 175. / 16.5 / 8.5 / 3.5 / 4.93210  TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
 176. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 4.99565  ChillinInTheKeys
 176. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 4.99565  SCGOOSE (Andrew)
 176. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 4.99565  Tyler Hutchinson
 179. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 5.01564  Hoon
 179. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 5.01564  Mr. Natural
 181. / 17 / 8 / 3 / 5.05152  Gearsts
 181. / 17 / 8 / 3 / 5.05152  Icybubba
 183. / 15 / 8 / 5 / 5.06967  Andre Brooks
 184. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 5.21420  dogebane
 184. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 5.21420  JD
 186. / 17 / 6 / 4 / 5.22497  HurricaneWatcher61
 187. / 17 / 7 / 3 / 5.24873  MichaelllEvansss ®
 188. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 5.26776  Cheap Bandaids
 188. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 5.26776  Jerry
 188. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 5.26776  Joris Meys
 188. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 5.26776  StormChaser21
 192. / 18 / 6 / 3 / 5.27511  TornadoFan
 193. / 14 / 9 / 4 / 5.32885  superpete
 194. / 14 / 10 / 3 / 5.43902  Telford Holmes>>> Taco
 195. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 5.43917  Isothunder
 196. / 16 / 7 / 3 / 5.45715  meteorEngineer
 197. / 15 / 8 / 3 / 5.49053  Glenda Howard
 198. / 15 / 9 / 2 / 5.63565  MissMolly'sMom
 199. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 5.87545  truther
 200. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 5.89400  Weather Jamaica
 201. / 12 / 8 / 4 / 5.97789  art
 202. / 15 / 5 / 3 / 6.09731  Kidwolf00
 203. / 13 / 7 / 3 / 6.12099  Kayla
 204. / 13 / 6 / 3 / 6.30953  Nrtiwlnvragn
 205. / 12 / 6 / 3 / 6.53474  Farlen Alvarado
 206. / 13 / 4 / 0.5 / 7.42681  MillennialMessiah
 207. / 0 / 0 / 0 / 11.09745  Lindy
 208. / 73 / 42 / 14 / 17.13062  Russell Rand
 209. / 36 / 24 / 36 / 18.16815  Qaz


Comments

  1. LemieTMay 13, 2021 at 4:44 AM

    This is much appreciated. Great to see how everyone's predictions panned out.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Advisory list

2024-25 Early Shem 019 - 09U / 97S before 2025-01-10-0830Z 2025-01-11-06Z 19.2S 102.3E 30kt (TD) 2025-01-12-06Z 19.6S 101.5E 25kt (TD) 2025-01-13-06Z 18.4S 99.7E 20kt (LO) 2025-01-14-06Z 15.8S 97.8E 20kt (DB) 2025-01-15-06Z dissipated 2024-25 Early Shem 018 - DIKELEDI before 2025-01-10-0830Z 2025-01-11-06Z 12.8S 51.2E 85kt (HU) 2025-01-12-06Z 13.7S 46.3E 50kt (TS) 2025-01-13-06Z 15.1S 41.9E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-14-06Z 17.6S 40.0E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-15-06Z 21.3S 38.8E 65kt (HU) 2024-25 Early Shem 017 - DIKELEDI before 2025-01-10-0230Z 2025-01-11-00Z 13.1S 53.1E 70kt (HU) 2025-01-12-00Z 13.3S 48.5E 45kt (TS) 2025-01-13-00Z 15.0S 43.2E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-14-00Z 17.1S 40.1E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-15-00Z 22.1S 40.1E 60kt (TS) 2024-25 Late Shem 011 - DIKELEDI around 2025-01-09-2100Z 2025-01-10-18Z 13.2S 54.1E 65kt (HU) 2025-01-11-18Z 13.0S 48.9E 50kt (TS) 2025-01-12-18Z 14.2S 44.3E 50kt (TS) 2025-01-13-18Z 16.4S 40.7E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-14-18Z 19.3S 39.6E 65kt (HU) 2024-25 Early Shem 016 - DIKELEDI bef...
Read more

Verification of tracks made of Jimena

Image
I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Jimena, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone for the first time. I made three more tracks after the first cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of the first cyclogenesis, there were fourteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 25, 12Z thru August 8, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized initial cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 29, 00Z and August 1, 00Z. Average was July 31, 05Z and median wa...
Read more

2024 hurricane season predictions

Image
  2024 Atlantic hurricane season nameable storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Final predictions as of June 1st, 2024 Deadline for new and revised predictions was May 31st, 2024 at 23:59 UTC Anyone wishing to participate can do so on X-Twitter or on Facebook . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alaric 19-10-4 (@IsatgmJames) arkenar 28-13-6 (@gnollified) Bill Tooke 17-9-6 (@BillTooke) Brent Camacho (QLCS Appreciator) 39-18-5 (@SonoranAstro) Brian 29-17-10 (@BrianATL82) Chandler Pruett 27-12-5 (@chanchanWXman) Charles Kersey 35-21-9 (@CharlesKersey) debbie156-MeidasMighty 32-21-4 (@debbie156) DOM-O 17-9-4 (@BigOlGoofyWorld) Doug 26-8-2 (@DouglasPDX) Eddie 40-24-4 (@TheIronHorse7) Edward the Texas Moran 22-12-5 (@TexasMoran) elioe 24-14-8 (@elioeFIN) FoxtrotAlphaTango 26-10-4 (@FavAuntTess) Glass Half Full 25-11-7 (@GFull225) Hurricane Chaser Chase 23-11-6 (@hurricane_chase) Jason Ludwig 14-6-2 (@JasonLud...
Read more