elioe's tracks

I made 20 tracks about Tropical Storm Gordon. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 23 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Originally, I often projected Gordon to form in eastern tropical Atlantic, the tropical cyclone and/or its precursor wave sometimes stalling, or even moving east. Then, I missed the system altogether for many days. In the end, there were a few instances, where I projected Gordon to form in Gulf of Mexico, way later than the actual time of cyclogenesis. Intensity forecast was variable, and position accuracy constantly very poor. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 1, 12Z thru September 8, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtro...

I made 30 tracks about Hurricane Florence. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 7 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Intensity forecast was very variable. Earliest tracks were generally either depicting a short-lived system in East Tropical Atlantic, or a Caribbean hurricane. Later, solution shifted to show early movement to subtropics, followed by dissipation well east of Bermuda. Only one track had Florence being mostly in the subtropics and hitting U.S. East Coast. Timing of cyclogenesis was excellent, while dissipation was mostly too early. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 29, 06Z thru September 18, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical dep...