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Showing posts from October, 2021

Verification of tracks made of Sam

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I made four tracks of Hurricane Sam, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 19, 00Z thru October 5, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 23, 00Z and September 30, 00Z. Average was September 27, 03Z and median was September 27, 18Z. In the eight c

Verification of tracks made of Rose

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I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Rose, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 16, 18Z thru September 24, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 18, 00Z and September 22, 06Z. Average was September 19, 05Z and median was September 18, 12Z. In the ei

Verification of tracks made of Peter

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I made eight tracks of Tropical Storm Peter, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone, from seven model cycles. In one instance, I made two tracks from one model cycle, and those tracks didn't overlap in time. Hereafter, those two tracks will be considered as one. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 13, 12Z thru September 29, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the seven tracks (made before opera

Verification of tracks made of Odette

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I made four tracks of Tropical Storm Odette, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 14, 00Z thru September 26, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), original formation times ranged between September 16, 12Z and September 17, 18Z. Average was September 17, 06Z and median was September 17, 09Z.

Verification of tracks made of Nicholas

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I made one track of Hurricane Nicholas, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 10, 12Z thru September 17, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the one track (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), range, average and median of formation time was September 12, 18Z. In the five cases (1 track, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 woul

Verification of tracks made of Mindy

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Mindy, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no tracks after cyclogenesis. Within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 31, 00Z thru September 10, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable. In the five cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 5 comple

Verification of tracks made of Larry

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I made two tracks of Hurricane Larry, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 30, 00Z thru September 11, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 30, 12Z and August 31, 12Z. Average and median was August 31, 00Z. In the seven cases (4 tracks, before the track

Verification of tracks made of Julian

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Julian, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no tracks after cyclogenesis. Within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 21, 18Z thru August 30, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable. In the four cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete

Verification of tracks made of Kate

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I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Kate, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one track after cyclogenesis. Within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 22, 00Z thru September 1, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable. In the five cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 5 complete

Verification of tracks made of Ida

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I made three tracks of Hurricane Ida, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 24, 06Z thru September 2, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 27, 12Z and August 30, 12Z. Average was August 29, 06Z and median was August 29, 18Z. In the five cases (3 tracks, b

Verification of tracks made of Henri

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I made one track of Hurricane Henri, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 14, 00Z thru August 24, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the one track (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), range, average and median of formation time was August 17, 12Z. In the eleven cases (1 track, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the