Verification of tracks made of Ida

October 19, 2021

I made three tracks of Hurricane Ida, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 24, 06Z thru September 2, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 27, 12Z and August 30, 12Z. Average was August 29, 06Z and median was August 29, 18Z.

In the five cases (3 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 4 would remain the peak intensity, and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 1. Average was Category -0.60 and median was Category 0.

In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized extratropical transition), dissipation times ranged between August 31, 00Z and September 1, 18Z. Average was August 31, 20Z and median was August 31, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 26 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 181 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 308 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 363 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 330 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 241 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 668 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 936 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 240 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 425 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme