Verification of tracks made of Odette
I made four tracks of Tropical Storm Odette,
before it was
assessed as
a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after cyclogenesis.
Additionally, within 504 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances,
when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 14, 00Z thru September 26, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), original formation times ranged between September 16, 12Z and September 17, 18Z. Average was September 17, 06Z and median was September 17, 09Z.
In the eight cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average and median was Category -1.
In the five tracks (made before finally no regeneration was expected), final dissipation times ranged between September 18, 18Z and September 25, 00Z. Average was September 20, 08Z and median was September 19, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 32 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 76 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 127 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 134 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 14, 06Z:
September 15, 06Z:
September 16, 06Z:
September 17, 00Z:
September 22, 06Z:
As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 14, 00Z thru September 26, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), original formation times ranged between September 16, 12Z and September 17, 18Z. Average was September 17, 06Z and median was September 17, 09Z.
In the eight cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average and median was Category -1.
In the five tracks (made before finally no regeneration was expected), final dissipation times ranged between September 18, 18Z and September 25, 00Z. Average was September 20, 08Z and median was September 19, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 32 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 76 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 127 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 134 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 21 days (504 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 14, 06Z:
September 15, 06Z:
September 16, 06Z:
September 17, 00Z:
September 22, 06Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
August 30, 18Z
September 2, 06Z
September 6, 06Z
September 10, 12Z
Comments
Post a Comment