elioe's tracks

I made eight tracks of Tropical Storm Priscilla. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were three instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Despite very good rate of detection for this weak and short-lived system, timing was erroneous. As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 19, 00Z thru October 21, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the eight tracks, formation times ranged between October 20, 06Z and October 23, 06Z. Average was October 21, 11Z and median was October 20, 18Z. In the eleven cases (8 tracks and 3 complete misses), p...

This was originally posted on November 17, 2019. This was corrected on January 10, 2020, as I found, that I had actually done one track of Octave. Previously I thought, that I had done none. I made one track of Tropical Storm Octave. Within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, where I missed cyclogenesis. As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 16, 12Z thru October 19, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the track, range, average and median of formation time was October 17, 18Z. In the eleven cases (1 track and 10 complete misses), peak ...

I made eleven tracks of Tropical Storm Narda. Within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were no instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Therefore, overall detection of the system was perfect. However, the timing of its existence as a tropical cyclone was often pretty erroneous. Peak intensity was mostly overestimated. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 26, 12Z thru October 1, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the eleven tracks, formation times ranged between September 27, 18Z and October 1, 18Z. Average was September 29, 16Z and median was ...

I made six tracks of Hurricane Lorena. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. There was a significant bias to the left of actual track, possibly due to incorrect accounting for nearby Mario . As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 15, 06Z thru September 22, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the six tracks, formation times ranged between September 16, 06Z and September 24, 06Z. Average was September 18, 09Z and median was September 16, 18Z. In the ten cases (6 tracks and 4 com...

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Mario. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The rate of detection was rather poor, all detections happening at a short lead time. Position errors also became quickly poor with increasing lead time. Neither of these are really surprising, given the difficulty of predicting the interactions between Mario and the stronger Lorena nearby, or even distinguishing two close systems from each other. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 15, 06Z thru September 23, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropic...

I made five tracks of Hurricane Kiko. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The rate of detection was not especially good, but most of the tracks correctly predicted a major hurricane. As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 9, 06Z thru September 25, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the five tracks, formation times ranged between September 11, 12Z and September 16, 12Z. Average was September 13, 04Z and median was September 12, 06Z. In the ten cases (5 tracks and 5 complete mi...

I made one track of Hurricane Juliette. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were twelve instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The sole track was at a short lead time. As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 30, 06Z thru September 7, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the track, range/average/median of formation time was September 2, 00Z. In the thirteen cases (1 track and 12 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.69 and median was Category -2. In the track, range/...