2020 hurricane season predictions

January 01, 2020

2020 Atlantic hurricane season

named storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes

Latest (and final) predictions as of June 1st, 2020

Deadline for new and revised predictions is May 31st, 2020 at 23:59 UTC

italics indicates midpoint of a range

101010edwebster 15-10-6
Abacosurf 17-9-4
Afrim Alimeti 28-14-7
Agent Goat 22-11-6
Alessa (StormTracker) 20-10-6
Alexander Emmett 17-10-4
all4hurricanes 18-8-3
Allan Reed 22-8-4
Allen_Wentz 18-12-6
Andre Brooks 15-8-5
aquak9 19-8-5
Arif Samad 17-9-5
art 12-8-4
Astreja 22-8-3
Athena 18-7-5
BaltimoreBrian 16-9-4
BarbaraGermany 19-8-4
Barbara Sabbeth 17-11-5
bear90ofs 20-10-5
Belleair Beach Bum Natalie 22-12-8
bigwes6844 24-14-7
bluegill 22-12-6
bob therriault 20-10-4
Brandon Thomason 23-12-7
Brandyn LaFon 19-9-5
Bret 17-10-5
BRsquatter77 19-10-5
Bupsin 19-10-4
Caleb Hardee 18-8-4
Cameron Masiello 21-12-6
Cam Pine (Camerooski) 21-11-5
capt deez 21-11-5
CarCar819 18-9-4
Caribbean Weather Center 18-9-4
Caribboy 19-9-4
Charlestonweather 18.5-8.5-4.5
Cheap Bandaids 16-8-3
ChillinInTheKeys 17-7-4
ChrisdCane 18-9-4
CHS-IOP 17-11-4
cigazze 20-9-4
climateNHBSH 25-10-5
Coastal Carolina 19-10-5
Craig Appleman 18-7-4
CrazyForStormsGuy 18-7-4
cRR Kampen 26-14-4
Cyclone2016 22-13-7
ÇYÇL🌀NICEĐĐZ 20-10-6
daddyjames 17-13-7
Dave Ranning 18-6-5
DaytonaBeachWatcher 17-9-3
Dirk 17-15-6
DMac 17-8.5-4.5
dogebane 16-7-4
Don Murray 17-7-6
DopplerShifted 18-8-3
earthisanocean 22-13-7
ejswine 18-10-4
elioe 19-9-6
elsbethie 19-14-6
envoirment 17-10-5
Farlen Alvarado 12-6-3
fyrebyrd042 21-13-8
GateKeeper 19-8-5
GatorWX 19-8-5
Gearsts 17-8-3
Gene 17-10-4
General Chow 20-9-7
Glenda Howard 15-8-3
Glendon Mairs 19-9-5
Gr8lakebreeze 17-10-3
Grothar(formerly Grothar) 18-9-4
GTstormChaserCaleb 20-11-6
guitarmanaaw 16-8-5
gulfcoaster 21-11-5
gunhilda 19-10-5
Hank Hurlston 18-10-6
Hemlock Philosopher 18-7-4
Hoon 16-8-4
Hurifisher 18-10-4
HurricaneFan 17-8.5-4
hurricane_guineapig 19-10-5
hurricaneivan 17-8-4
Hurricane Jose 23-13-6
HurricaneWatch247 20-9-4
HurricaneWatcher61 17-6-4
HydroGeek 20-9-5
Hyper 17.5-10-5
Icybubba 17-8-3
Isothunder 15-7-4
James Hinna 23-10-4
jandrew 24-11-7
Jason M Weed 20-14-6
JD 16-7-4
Jerry 16-8-3
jiiski 19-9-6
Jon Tay-catch 18-10-4
Jordan Brown 18-10-4
Joris Meys 16-8-3
Joseph Sturch 97L(Ravensfan) 17-9-4
Jrock74 17-10-5
JRRP 17-10-6
Justabitowind 20-12-6
K2 18-12-8
Kallenjr69 18-8-5
Kayla 13-7-3
Keytom 20-11-5
Kidwolf00 15-5-3
kramer56dk 22-11-6
KyonPR 18-10-5
Lemuel Taylor 17-10-5
Lindy 0-0-0
llamaluvr 19-12-7
Losmarlins 20-12-6
Lostboy63 19-10-5
lowcountrynoob 19-9-5
Lurkindanger 19-9-5
MahNEFL 18-9-3
MAweatherboy1 17-8-4
meteorEngineer 16-7-3
Meteorologist2020 21-10-4
micatnight 21-16-7
Michael Anderson 22-11-6
MichaelllEvansss ® 17-7-3
Michael Paul 17-11-5
MidwayLakeGeorge 18-8-3
MightyOracle 19-10-6
Mike 20-10-6
MillennialMessiah 13-4-0.5
MissMolly'sMom 15-9-2
mitthbevnuruodo 19-9-3
Mouse ears 18-9-4
Mr. Natural 16-8-4
Mr. Neutral 19-11-5
Mr.Tornadochase 19-11-6
Nash40 18-8-4
Native Son 20-11-6
Nature Files 19-8-4
NeGoM (JNichols) 18-11-5
NHWX 21-12-6
not a machine 17-9-6
NotSpa☈ta (Alex) 18.5-10-4
Nrtiwlnvragn 13-6-3
OctoberHurricane 19-11-6
oldnewmex 18-8-5
Pablo Rafael Martins 19.5-11.5-6
Patrap 17-9-3
Prouss Rouss 19-10-6
Qaz 36-24-36
Rd003 19-10-6
Reed Michaelson @ Los Angeles 20-12-5
Richard Butler 18-8-3
river_of_stars 19-11-5
rmbjoe5806 18-8-5
Robstxwx19 19-10-5
Ron 28-19-12
RPhilMan1 17-9-3
Russell Rand 73-42-14
Sadie La Rue 18-9-6
Samuel Lobdell 22-12-6
SCGOOSE (Andrew) 17-7-4
Seattleite 20-11-5
Skyepony 20-12-5
SLU 19-10-5
SRQfl 19-7-5
StacHoumaLa 21-9-4
StayAlive77 18-10-5
Stella 18-11-5
STLwj 16-7-4
StormChaser19 18-10-4
StormChaser21 16-8-3
Storm Master 21.5-12.5-8
Sue DiMeglio Russell Kaufman 20-9-5
SunnyDaysFl 19-9-4
supercane7 17-9-4
superpete 14-9-4
swflurker 20-10-5
Tabludama 18-8-4
Telford Holmes>>> Taco 14-10-3
TheCrystalQueen 18-9-5
TheReaperofCanada 17-8.5-4
thisisacreativename 19-8-4
TiggerHurricanes2001 16-9-5
Time Keeps Running 19-10-6
Tornado6042008X 20-13-7
TornadoFan 18-6-3
TropicalAnalystwx13 17-9-4
TROPICALCYCLONEALERT 16.5-8.5-3.5
truther 15-6-3
Tyler Hutchinson 17-7-4
typhonium 20-11-6
Uziel Snyder 22-14-6
Vanessa Hall 22-11-6
Vintage Cars 18-9-5
Wannabebeachbum 20-8-4
wartsttocs 21-7-2
Weather Dude 18-10-5
Weatherfan1013 16-9-4
weathergod 19-7-4
Weather Jamaica 14-7-3
WeatherkidJoe23 16-9-5
Weatherman1228 19.5-10-3.5
weatherman_53 16-8-5
wunderguycayman@WU 19.5-11-5
WXcolorado 17-8-4
WxDude (aquak9 my hero) 17-9-3
WXManWannabe 17-11-5
WxRob87 18-9-5
Yvette Helen Owes 18-6-5
Zed98 20-10-4

A note about error calculations:

In the previous two years, I calculated the errors of seasonal predictions as

sqrt( (E_ns/N_ns)^2 + (E_hu/N_hu)^2 + (E_mh/N_mh)^2 )

where E_ns is error and N_ns is actual number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error and N_hu is actual number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error and N_mh is actual number of major hurricanes.

But some people were puzzled by how, for example, in a season with 18-6-3, 12-6-3 could be equal to 18-6-2 in amount of error. So I have decided, that in this season, the error will be

sqrt( (E_ns)^2 / 12.1 + (E_hu)^2 / 6.4 + (E_mh)^2 / 2.7 )

in other words, the actual numbers will be replaced by 1981-2010 averages, and they will be no longer squared. Therefore, error in majors is no longer weighed as intensively compared to error in named storms. Also, since the weights are neither integers nor divisible by each other, it will reduce the amount of people ending up in tied positions.

Latest chart from Farlen Alvarado: