Ranking of 2019 Atlantic hurricane season predictions

Edited 22.5.-20. Oops, I had forgot DirigoDude from both the public prediction list and this ranking.

As I'm writing this, official season total is 18-6-3. There are no obvious candidates to be reclassified in post-season analysis. Even if an operationally recognised storm was demoted, or infinitely more storms added, it wouldn't change the names of winners.

Congratulations
 Hemlock Philosopher
and
Joseph Sturch
!!!


The combined error is calculated as follows:

sqrt( (E_ns/N_ns)^2 + (E_hu/N_hu)^2 + (E_mh/N_mh)^2 )

where E_ns is error and N_ns is actual number of nameable storms,
E_hu is error and N_hu is actual number of hurricanes and
E_mh is error and N_mh is actual number of major hurricanes.

The following has the format of

ranking. / predicted named storms / predicted hurricanes / predicted major hurricanes / combined error and Disqus handle at time of giving prediction



  1. / 17 / 6 / 3 / 0.05556  Hemlock Philosopher
  1. / 17 / 6 / 3 / 0.05556  Joseph Sturch
  3. / 16 / 6 / 3 / 0.11111  Kallenjr69
  3. / 16 / 6 / 3 / 0.11111  Seattleite
  5. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.16667  Alexander Emmett
  5. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.16667  MahNEFL
  5. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.16667  Weatherfan1013
  5. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.16667  WeatherWatchr
  5. / 15 / 6 / 3 / 0.16667  wunderkidcayman@WU
 10. / 16 / 7 / 3 / 0.20031  OBXLurker
 10. / 16 / 7 / 3 / 0.20031  Stormwatch247
 10. / 16 / 7 / 3 / 0.20031  SWFLWx
 13. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.22222  Gene
 13. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.22222  Rd003
 13. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.22222  Ron
 13. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.22222  Tabludama
 13. / 14 / 6 / 3 / 0.22222  Zed98
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  BarbaraGermany
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  Bupsin
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  CarCar819
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  envoirment
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  Gary Norris
 18. / 15 / 5 / 3 / 0.23570  HubuII
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  Jordan Brown
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  meteorEngineer
 18. / 15 / 7 / 3 / 0.23570  MidwayLakeGeorge
 18. / 15 / 5 / 3 / 0.23570  Nathan (Astrometeor)
 18. / 15 / 5 / 3 / 0.23570  SRQfl
 18. / 15 / 5 / 3 / 0.23570  weathergod
 30. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.27778  Jrock74
 30. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.27778  Vanessa Hall
 30. / 14 / 7 / 3 / 0.27778  Yvette Helen Owes
 33. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.32394  elioe
 33. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.32394  HurricaneWatcher61
 33. / 13 / 5 / 3 / 0.32394  Wxhog Tony
 36. / 12 / 6 / 3 / 0.33333  STLwj
 36. / 12 / 6 / 3 / 0.33333  swflurker
 38. / 17 / 6 / 4 / 0.33793  Athena
 38. / 19 / 8 / 3 / 0.33793  Sue DiMeglio Russell Kaufman
 40. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.35136  ChiThom...
 40. / 16 / 6 / 4 / 0.35136  DewPointOneDrop
 40. / 16 / 6 / 4 / 0.35136  hurricanefiend85
 40. / 16 / 6 / 4 / 0.35136  JNichols
 40. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.35136  oldnewmex
 40. / 16 / 8 / 3 / 0.35136  TropicalAnalystwx13
 46. / 12 / 7 / 3 / 0.37268  Arif Samad
 46. / 15 / 8 / 3 / 0.37268  Dorky McDorkface
 46. / 15 / 8 / 3 / 0.37268  Grothar
 46. / 15 / 6 / 4 / 0.37268  Hutch
 46. / 15 / 8 / 3 / 0.37268  MightyOracle
 46. / 15 / 8 / 3 / 0.37268  SunnyDaysFl
 46. / 15 / 8 / 3 / 0.37268  UnfriendlyOne
 53. / 17 / 7 / 4 / 0.37680  thisisacreativename
 54. / 11 / 6 / 3 / 0.38889  Alessandra
 54. / 16 / 7 / 2 / 0.38889  Gearsts
 54. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 0.38889  IsoThunder
 54. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 0.38889  Nash40
 54. / 16 / 7 / 2 / 0.38889  Reed Michaelson
 54. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 0.38889  Shannon E
 54. / 16 / 7 / 4 / 0.38889  Stormfury
 54. / 20 / 7 / 4 / 0.38889  Storm Master
 62. / 14 / 6 / 2 / 0.40062  all4hurricanes
 62. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.40062  Caleb Hardee
 62. / 14 / 6 / 2 / 0.40062  CatchDogg
 62. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.40062  HANK L HURLSTON
 62. / 14 / 8 / 3 / 0.40062  hurricaneivan
 62. / 14 / 6 / 2 / 0.40062  Lemuel Taylor
 68. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 0.40825  Bearded Glory
 68. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 0.40825  Michael Anderson
 68. / 15 / 5 / 4 / 0.40825  RPhilMan1
 68. / 15 / 7 / 2 / 0.40825  supercane7
 68. / 15 / 7 / 4 / 0.40825  wxgeek723
 73. / 11 / 5 / 3 / 0.42310  aquak9
 74. / 13 / 6 / 2 / 0.43390  Abacosurf
 74. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 0.43390  BigAndBendy
 74. / 14 / 7 / 2 / 0.43390  daddyjames
 74. / 13 / 6 / 2 / 0.43390  Hoon
 74. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 0.43390  Justabitowind
 74. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 0.43390  rmbjoe5806
 74. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 0.43390  Stella
 74. / 14 / 7 / 4 / 0.43390  Wade
 74. / 14 / 5 / 2 / 0.43390  WeatherkidJoe23
 74. / 14 / 5 / 2 / 0.43390  win1gamegiantsplease
 84. / 13 / 6.5 / 2 / 0.44183  HurricaneFan
 85. / 13 / 5 / 2 / 0.46481  Gr8lakebreeze
 85. / 13 / 7 / 4 / 0.46481  JRRP
 87. / 12 / 6 / 2 / 0.47140  Cameron Masiello
 87. / 12 / 4 / 3 / 0.47140  gunhilda
 87. / 18 / 8 / 2 / 0.47140  WXcolorado
 90. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 0.47467  LaPirataBorinquen
 90. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 0.47467  Pat Pierce
 90. / 17 / 8 / 4 / 0.47467  Samuel Lobdell
 93. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 0.48432  Mike
 93. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 0.48432  New Hampshire Weather
 93. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 0.48432  SLU
 93. / 16 / 8 / 4 / 0.48432  WxRob87
 97. / 12 / 5 / 2 / 0.50000  101010edwebster
 97. / 12 / 7 / 2 / 0.50000  Andre Brooks
 97. / 12 / 5 / 2 / 0.50000  CrazyForStormsGuy
 97. / 12 / 5 / 2 / 0.50000  Kayla
 97. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 0.50000  Lips Like Morphine
 97. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 0.50000  Lurkindanger
 97. / 15 / 8 / 4 / 0.50000  Mrtornadochase
104. / 14.5 / 8 / 4 / 0.50993  HyperCyclone X
105. / 16 / 9 / 3 / 0.51220  Glendon Mairs
105. / 16 / 9 / 3 / 0.51220  StormChaser19
107. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 0.52116  guitarmanaaw
107. / 14 / 8 / 4 / 0.52116  typhonium
109. / 15 / 9 / 3 / 0.52705  Joris Meys
110. / 11 / 5 / 2 / 0.53863  Mouse Ears
111. / 16 / 8.5 / 4 / 0.54504  StayAlive77
112. / 13 / 8 / 2 / 0.54716  JD
113. / 10 / 6 / 2 / 0.55556  MissMolly'sMom
114. / 18 / 9 / 4 / 0.60093  dre33
114. / 9 / 4 / 3 / 0.60093  Skyepony
114. / 18 / 9 / 2 / 0.60093  Vintage Cars
117. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 0.60349  882MB
117. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 0.60349  DirigoDude
117. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 0.60349  SCGOOSE (Andrew Price)
117. / 17 / 9 / 4 / 0.60349  TheCrystalQueen
121. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 0.61111  BaltimoreBrian
121. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 0.61111  CHS-IOP
121. / 16 / 9 / 2 / 0.61111  Hernando Florida
121. / 16 / 9 / 4 / 0.61111  Momof4
125. / 15 / 9 / 4 / 0.62361  Malik Boggs
125. / 15 / 9 / 4 / 0.62361  ThisIsNotSparta
125. / 15 / 9 / 4 / 0.62361  TROPICALCYCLONEALERT
128. / 10 / 4 / 2 / 0.64788  Graig Appleman
129. / 16 / 10 / 3 / 0.67586  NasBah082001
130. / 20 / 5 / 1 / 0.69611  jeff2017
131. / 14 / 7 / 5 / 0.72222  earthisanocean
132. / 8 / 4 / 2 / 0.72860  InsideUK
133. / 13 / 5 / 1 / 0.74120  Greg A Casamayor
134. / 18 / 10 / 4 / 0.74536  Keytom
135. / 17 / 8 / 5 / 0.74742  EmsiNasklug
135. / 19 / 10 / 4 / 0.74742  GateKeeper
135. / 17 / 10 / 4 / 0.74742  Native Son
138. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 0.75359  GTstormChaserCaleb
138. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 0.75359  Mr. Neutral
138. / 16 / 8 / 5 / 0.75359  Pitons
141. / 15 / 8 / 5 / 0.76376  Lostboy63
142. / 17 / 9.5 / 4.5 / 0.77030  SeminoleWind
143. / 9 / 3 / 2 / 0.78174  Hurricane Fanatic
144. / 11 / 5 / 1 / 0.78959  Nrtiwlnvragn
145. / 13 / 8 / 5 / 0.79543  Bret
146. / 18 / 9 / 5 / 0.83333  IDTH
146. / 9 / 6 / 5 / 0.83333  Sadie La Rue
148. / 16 / 9 / 5 / 0.84071  2big_2fail
148. / 16 / 9 / 5 / 0.84071  Caribboy
148. / 16 / 9 / 5 / 0.84071  KyonPR
151. / 15 / 9 / 5 / 0.84984  Ro2014
152. / 10 / 8 / 1 / 0.86781  Jason M Reed
153. / 20 / 10 / 5 / 0.94933  bigwes6844
154. / 16.5 / 9.5 / 5.5 / 1.02062  Nevada Morgan
155. / 16 / 8 / 6 / 1.05993  Northeast Quadrant
155. / 16 / 12 / 4 / 1.05993  TornadoFan
157. / 14 / 8 / 6 / 1.07726  TheReaperofCanada
158. / 19 / 9 / 6 / 1.11941  CyclonicEddz
158. / 17 / 9 / 6 / 1.11941  not a machine
160. / 14 / 9 / 6 / 1.13990  Floodplain
161. / 14 / 2 / 0 / 1.22222  Misanthroptimist
162. / 8 / 2 / 8 / 1.87906  Dennis Stansell
163. / 22 / 14 / 7 / 1.89867  Afrim Alimeti
164. / 20 / 15 / 7 / 2.01001  fyrebyrd042
165. / 21 / 14 / 8 / 2.14087  Hurricane Devo
166. / 28 / 18 / 9 / 2.88247  Weather Jamaica
167. / 17 / 17 / 17 / 5.01418  Killa.fish
168. / 36 / 24 / 36 / 11.44552  Qaz
169. / 35 / 35 / 35 / 11.74865  The CMC

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Advisory list

2025 Late Atl 066 - IMELDA around 2025-09-28-2100Z 2025-09-29-18Z 27.2N 77.5W 50kt (TS) 2025-09-30-18Z 29.2N 75.7W 60kt (TS) 2025-10-01-18Z 31.2N 70.3W 75kt (HU) 2025-10-02-18Z 32.0N 63.0W 65kt (HU) 2025-10-03-18Z 33.7N 57.1W 50kt (EX)  2025 Late Atl 065 - 09L around 2025-09-28-1500Z 2025-09-29-12Z 26.1N 77.9W 50kt (TS) 2025-09-30-12Z 28.5N 77.3W 60kt (TS) 2025-10-01-12Z 29.7N 73.2W 70kt (HU) 2025-10-02-12Z 31.0N 67.5W 70kt (HU) 2025-10-03-12Z 32.5N 61.0W 60kt (EX)  2025 Late Atl 064 - HUMBERTO around 2025-09-27-2100Z 2025-09-28-18Z 24.7N 64.5W 135kt (HU) 2025-09-29-18Z 27.9N 67.4W 120kt (HU) 2025-09-30-18Z 31.5N 69.0W 100kt (HU) 2025-10-01-18Z 35.7N 63.8W 85kt (HU) 2025-10-02-18Z 42.5N 48.3W 75kt (HU)  2025 Late Atl 063 - 09L around 2025-09-27-2100Z 2025-09-28-18Z 24.8N 77.4W 45kt (TS) 2025-09-29-18Z 28.5N 78.6W 60kt (TS) 2025-09-30-18Z 30.9N 79.3W 60kt (TS) 2025-10-01-18Z 31.0N 77.2W 50kt (TS) 2025-10-02-18Z 30.7N 76.0W 40kt (TS)  2025 Late Atl 062 - 09L around 202...
Read more

Predictions for year 2025 - mainly for entertainment purposes

Image
Totals for North Atlantic hurricane season: 22 (sub)tropical cyclones, 19 nameable storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major (ACE=93) Totals for East Pacific hurricane season: 18(sub)tropical cyclones, 17 nameable storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major (ACE=89) Totals for Central Pacific hurricane season: 4 tropical cyclones, 4 nameable storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major Totals for Pacific typhoon season: 32 storms, 18 typhoons, 10 super typhoons (JTWC count) Totals for North Indian Ocean cyclone season: 6 storms, 4 hurricane-equivalent, 2 major hurricane-equivalent (JTWC count) One (sub)tropical storm in Mediterranean, one hurricane No (sub)tropical cyclones in Baltic Sea State of Niño 3.4: beginning as weak La Niña, becoming cool neutral in MAM, warm neutral in ASO Arctic sea ice minimum: 3.75 million km² Global annual average temperature: 1.20 degrees Celsius above 20th century average Circle coloration scheme Individual storm tracks in North Atlantic Tropical Storm ANDREA   Tropical Depression TWO ...
Read more

2025 hurricane season predictions

Image
2025 Atlantic hurricane season nameable storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Final predictions as of June 1st, 2025 Deadline for new and revised predictions was May 31st, 2025 at 23:59 UTC Anyone wishing to participate could do so on X-Twitter or on Facebook . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 24-13-6 (@prosopagnosic) Alaric 21-9-5 (@IsagtmJames) Bill Tooke 17-11-6 (@BillTooke) Daniel Nyman 16-8-3 (@DanielNymanTV) DonnaDee  14-9-3  (@Peony459) D ☈ew Thiesing 18-10-4 (@DrewThiesing) elioe 19-6-3 (@elioeFIN) eve 22-9-5 (@sneevies) James Mick 0-0-0 (@JamesMichne) Jose E. Rodriguez Y.  13-8-2  (@DrJery) Joseph Sturch 19-8-5 JustWatchingSocietyFall 19-8-3 (@AnAmerican2773) Kenneth Sisson 15-15-3 (@kksisson4) MissMolly'sMom 16-8-3 mp 23-11-6 (@angryeducatornj) Phx Hoops 16-9-4 (@SAINTTLF) Porfirio León 19-9-5 (@californio33) PSL3SubhumanAlien 18-10-5 (@Psl3Alien) Sadie La Rue 18-12-5 Seattleite 18-...
Read more