Predictions for year 2025 - mainly for entertainment purposes

Totals for North Atlantic hurricane season: 22 (sub)tropical cyclones, 19 nameable storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major (ACE=93)

Totals for East Pacific hurricane season: 18(sub)tropical cyclones, 17 nameable storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major (ACE=89)

Totals for Central Pacific hurricane season: 4 tropical cyclones, 4 nameable storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major

Totals for Pacific typhoon season: 32 storms, 18 typhoons, 10 super typhoons (JTWC count)

Totals for North Indian Ocean cyclone season: 6 storms, 4 hurricane-equivalent, 2 major hurricane-equivalent (JTWC count)

One (sub)tropical storm in Mediterranean, one hurricane

No (sub)tropical cyclones in Baltic Sea

State of Niño 3.4: beginning as weak La Niña, becoming cool neutral in MAM, warm neutral in ASO

Arctic sea ice minimum: 3.75 million km²

Global annual average temperature: 1.20 degrees Celsius above 20th century average

Circle coloration scheme


Individual storm tracks in North Atlantic

Tropical Storm ANDREA

 


Tropical Depression TWO

Tropical Storm BARRY
 

Hurricane CHANTAL

Hurricane DEXTER

Hurricane ERIN
 

Tropical Storm FERNAND

Tropical Storm GABRIELLE

Tropical Depression NINE
 

Hurricane HUMBERTO

Tropical Storm IMELDA
 

Hurricane JERRY

Subtropical Storm KAREN
 

Tropical Storm LORENZO

Tropical Storm MELISSA
 

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

Tropical Storm NESTOR
 

Tropical Storm OLGA

Tropical Storm PABLO
 

Tropical Storm REBEKAH

Hurricane SEBASTIEN
 

Tropical Storm TANYA

 Individual storm tracks in East Pacific

 only those systems forming east of 140W
 

Tropical Storm ALVIN
 

Hurricane BARBARA
 

Hurricane COSME
 

 Tropical Storm DALILA


Tropical Storm ERICK


Hurricane FLOSSIE


Hurricane GIL


Tropical Depression EIGHT-E


Hurricane HENRIETTE


Hurricane IVO


Tropical Storm JULIETTE


Tropical Storm KIKO


Hurricane LORENA


Hurricane MARIO


Hurricane NARDA


Tropical Storm OCTAVE


Hurricane PRISCILLA


Tropical Storm RAYMOND



Conclusion
 
The most intense storm of 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Jerry, while the costliest and deadliest will be Sebastien. Sebastien will be retired.

The deadliest and most intense storm of 2025 Pacific hurricane season will be Priscilla, while the costliest will be Narda. Narda and Priscilla will be retired.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Advisory list

2024-25 Early Shem 019 - 09U / 97S before 2025-01-10-0830Z 2025-01-11-06Z 19.2S 102.3E 30kt (TD) 2025-01-12-06Z 19.6S 101.5E 25kt (TD) 2025-01-13-06Z 18.4S 99.7E 20kt (LO) 2025-01-14-06Z 15.8S 97.8E 20kt (DB) 2025-01-15-06Z dissipated 2024-25 Early Shem 018 - DIKELEDI before 2025-01-10-0830Z 2025-01-11-06Z 12.8S 51.2E 85kt (HU) 2025-01-12-06Z 13.7S 46.3E 50kt (TS) 2025-01-13-06Z 15.1S 41.9E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-14-06Z 17.6S 40.0E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-15-06Z 21.3S 38.8E 65kt (HU) 2024-25 Early Shem 017 - DIKELEDI before 2025-01-10-0230Z 2025-01-11-00Z 13.1S 53.1E 70kt (HU) 2025-01-12-00Z 13.3S 48.5E 45kt (TS) 2025-01-13-00Z 15.0S 43.2E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-14-00Z 17.1S 40.1E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-15-00Z 22.1S 40.1E 60kt (TS) 2024-25 Late Shem 011 - DIKELEDI around 2025-01-09-2100Z 2025-01-10-18Z 13.2S 54.1E 65kt (HU) 2025-01-11-18Z 13.0S 48.9E 50kt (TS) 2025-01-12-18Z 14.2S 44.3E 50kt (TS) 2025-01-13-18Z 16.4S 40.7E 60kt (TS) 2025-01-14-18Z 19.3S 39.6E 65kt (HU) 2024-25 Early Shem 016 - DIKELEDI bef...
Read more

Verification of tracks made of Jimena

Image
I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Jimena, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone for the first time. I made three more tracks after the first cyclogenesis. Additionally, within 504 hours of the first cyclogenesis, there were fourteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 25, 12Z thru August 8, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2". In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized initial cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 29, 00Z and August 1, 00Z. Average was July 31, 05Z and median wa...
Read more

2024 hurricane season predictions

Image
  2024 Atlantic hurricane season nameable storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes Final predictions as of June 1st, 2024 Deadline for new and revised predictions was May 31st, 2024 at 23:59 UTC Anyone wishing to participate can do so on X-Twitter or on Facebook . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Alaric 19-10-4 (@IsatgmJames) arkenar 28-13-6 (@gnollified) Bill Tooke 17-9-6 (@BillTooke) Brent Camacho (QLCS Appreciator) 39-18-5 (@SonoranAstro) Brian 29-17-10 (@BrianATL82) Chandler Pruett 27-12-5 (@chanchanWXman) Charles Kersey 35-21-9 (@CharlesKersey) debbie156-MeidasMighty 32-21-4 (@debbie156) DOM-O 17-9-4 (@BigOlGoofyWorld) Doug 26-8-2 (@DouglasPDX) Eddie 40-24-4 (@TheIronHorse7) Edward the Texas Moran 22-12-5 (@TexasMoran) elioe 24-14-8 (@elioeFIN) FoxtrotAlphaTango 26-10-4 (@FavAuntTess) Glass Half Full 25-11-7 (@GFull225) Hurricane Chaser Chase 23-11-6 (@hurricane_chase) Jason Ludwig 14-6-2 (@JasonLud...
Read more