Verification of a track made on Kirk using GEFS mean fields

I made one track about Tropical Storm Kirk. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 16 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 20, 00Z thru September 29, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the track, range, average and median of formation time was September 25, 06Z.

In the 17 cases (1 track and 16 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.76 and median was Category -2.

In the track, range, average and median of dissipation time was September 29, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 6 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 118 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 252 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 321 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 8 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 575 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 8 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here is the track once again.

September 20, 00Z run:

The complete misses were from following runs:

September 6, 06Z
September 7, 12Z
September 9, 12Z
September 9, 18Z
September 10, 12Z

September 13, 18Z
September 14, 12Z
September 15, 06Z
September 15, 18Z
September 16, 06Z

September 16, 18Z
September 17, 06Z
September 17, 12Z
September 18, 06Z
September 18, 12Z

September 19, 06Z