Verification of tracks made on Ernesto using GEFS mean fields
I made 15 tracks about Tropical Storm Ernesto. Additionally, within 384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were 30 instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. When cyclogenesis was indicated, I mostly predicted a hurricane. Movement was generally predicted as too slow, with too little north component. Timing of cyclogenesis was excellent.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 11, 12Z thru August 18, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 15 tracks, formation times ranged between August 14, 00Z and August 16, 18Z. Average was August 15, 05Z and median was August 15, 06Z.
In the 45 cases (15 tracks and 30 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.07 and median was Category -2.
In the 29 tracks, dissipation times ranged between August 15, 12Z and August 24, 06Z. Average was August 19, 12Z and median was August 18, 18Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 8 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 64 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 240 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hits, 2 false detections and 11 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 537 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 517 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 9 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 324 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 486 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 9 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 9 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 694 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 6 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 451 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 5 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 534 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 5 hits, 1 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 705 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 868 nautical miles.
Here are the tracks once again.
August 1, 12Z run:
August 1, 18Z run:
August 2, 00Z run:
August 2, 06Z run:
August 2, 12Z run:
August 3, 00Z run:
August 5, 18Z run:
August 6, 00Z run:
August 6, 06Z run:
August 7, 06Z run:
August 8, 00Z run:
August 14, 00Z run:
August 14, 06Z run:
August 14, 12Z run:
August 14, 18Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
August 2, 18Z
August 4, 00Z
August 4, 06Z
August 4, 12Z
August 4, 18Z
August 5, 00Z
August 5, 06Z
August 5, 12Z
August 6, 12Z
August 6, 18Z
August 7, 12Z
August 7, 18Z
August 8, 06Z
August 8, 12Z
August 8, 18Z
August 9, 00Z
August 9, 06Z
August 10, 18Z
August 11, 00Z
August 11, 06Z
August 11, 12Z
August 11, 18Z
August 12, 00Z
August 12, 06Z
August 12, 12Z
August 12, 18Z
August 13, 00Z
August 13, 06Z
August 13, 12Z
August 13, 18Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 11, 12Z thru August 18, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 15 tracks, formation times ranged between August 14, 00Z and August 16, 18Z. Average was August 15, 05Z and median was August 15, 06Z.
In the 45 cases (15 tracks and 30 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.07 and median was Category -2.
In the 29 tracks, dissipation times ranged between August 15, 12Z and August 24, 06Z. Average was August 19, 12Z and median was August 18, 18Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 8 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 64 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 240 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hits, 2 false detections and 11 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 10 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 7 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 537 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 517 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 9 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 324 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 7 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 486 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 9 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 9 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 694 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 6 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 451 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 5 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 534 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 5 hits, 1 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 705 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 868 nautical miles.
Here are the tracks once again.
August 1, 12Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
August 2, 18Z
August 4, 00Z
August 4, 06Z
August 4, 12Z
August 4, 18Z
August 5, 00Z
August 5, 06Z
August 5, 12Z
August 6, 12Z
August 6, 18Z
August 7, 12Z
August 7, 18Z
August 8, 06Z
August 8, 12Z
August 8, 18Z
August 9, 00Z
August 9, 06Z
August 10, 18Z
August 11, 00Z
August 11, 06Z
August 11, 12Z
August 11, 18Z
August 12, 00Z
August 12, 06Z
August 12, 12Z
August 12, 18Z
August 13, 00Z
August 13, 06Z
August 13, 12Z
August 13, 18Z
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