Verification of ghost storm tracks of January-March 2018
I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 76 times in January-March 2018, but made only 67 tracks. Tracks were made of six systems.
In the calculations, crossover to Eastern Pacific is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover back to Atlantic is considered equal to regeneration.
This blog post will be subject to revision, if NHC in post-season analysis decides to acknowledge one of the systems (Ghost Storm #4) as subtropical cyclone.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 16 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 false detections.
January 3, 18Z run:
January 4, 06Z run:
January 19, 18Z run:
January 20, 18Z run:
January 25, 00Z run:
January 25, 06Z run:
January 25, 12Z run:
January 25, 18Z run:
January 26, 00Z run:
January 26, 06Z run:
January 26, 12Z run:
After these, I detected cyclogenesis in following runs
January 26, 18Z
January 27, 00Z
January 27, 06Z
January 27, 12Z
January 28, 12Z
January 29, 00Z
January 29, 06Z
but I didn't do tracks.
January 24, 12Z run:
February 8, 18Z run:
February 9, 18Z run:
February 11, 18Z run:
February 13, 00Z run:
February 13, 06Z run:
February 15, 00Z run:
February 16, 06Z run:
February 16, 12Z run:
February 16, 18Z run:
February 17, 00Z run:
February 17, 06Z run:
February 17, 12Z run:
February 18, 06Z run:
February 18, 12Z run:
February 18, 18Z run:
February 19, 00Z run:
February 19, 06Z run:
February 19, 12Z run:
February 19, 18Z run:
February 20, 00Z run:
February 20, 06Z run:
February 20, 12Z run:
February 20, 18Z run:
February 21, 00Z run:
February 21, 06Z run:
February 21, 12Z run:
I also detected cyclogenesis from
February 21, 18Z and
February 22, 00Z
runs, but didn't make tracks.
March 19, 00Z run:
March 21, 00Z run:
March 21, 06Z run:
March 21, 12Z run:
March 21, 18Z run:
March 22, 00Z run:
March 22, 06Z run:
March 22, 12Z run:
March 22, 18Z run:
March 23, 00Z run:
March 23, 06Z run:
March 23, 12Z run:
March 23, 18Z run:
March 24, 00Z run:
March 24, 06Z run:
March 24, 12Z run:
March 24, 18Z run:
March 25, 06Z run:
March 25, 12Z run:
March 25, 18Z run:
In the calculations, crossover to Eastern Pacific is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover back to Atlantic is considered equal to regeneration.
This blog post will be subject to revision, if NHC in post-season analysis decides to acknowledge one of the systems (Ghost Storm #4) as subtropical cyclone.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 13 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 16 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 false detections.
Ghost Storm #1
This system became an elongated concentration of spin near Costa Rica, with associated cloud cover occasionally sheared almost all the way to Jamaica.
January 3, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #2
This became a cut-off low, with seemingly a very shallow warm core embedded within a cold core.
January 18, 12Z run:
January 26, 18Z
January 27, 00Z
January 27, 06Z
January 27, 12Z
January 28, 12Z
January 29, 00Z
January 29, 06Z
but I didn't do tracks.
Ghost storm #3
It snowed in Sahara. It was a fierce upper-level low, I guess. And some models suggested, that another upper-level low would rotate around it into Macaronesian waters. And possibly a cut-off low coming from NW. These tracks are best explained by such setup, but since lead time in both tracks was over ten days, the setup was not clear.
January 24, 00Z run:
Ghost storm #4
This was originally a nor'easter, dubbed by Weather Channel as Winter Storm Noah. It began to acquire a warm core very soon, symmetry later. By the time the system was south of Azores, it took the typical look of a subtropical storm, while surface observations in Azores weren't consistent with any passing front. Here in right-center position:
Here a close-up. Though not the best-looking at that point.
February 7, 18Z run:
February 21, 18Z and
February 22, 00Z
runs, but didn't make tracks.
Ghost storm #5
This became a rather impressive, but definitely not subtropical.
Later looking more cut-off, but poof. Source: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/978794567049863168/photo/1
March 19, 00Z run:
March 20, 06Z run:
March 20, 12Z run:
March 20, 18Z run:
Ghost storm #6
A tropical depression in Bay of Campeche. In April? Seriously? Well, this signal evaporated more than ten days before expected cyclogenesis.
March 21, 00Z run:
March 21, 00Z run:
March 21, 06Z run:
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