Verification of ghost storm tracks of July 2018
I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 53 times in
July 2018, and made tracks in all such situations. Tracks were made
of ten systems.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 6 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 17 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 21 false detections.
July 1, 06Z run:
July 2, 18Z run:
July 6, 00Z run:
July 6, 12Z run:
July 6, 18Z run:
July 7, 00Z run:
July 7, 06Z run:
July 7, 12Z run:
July 9, 06Z run:
July 10, 06Z run:
July 11, 12Z run:
July 13, 00Z run:
July 13, 06Z run:
July 14, 06Z run:
July 14, 18Z run:
July 16, 00Z run:
July 20, 00Z run:
July 23, 12Z run:
July 23, 18Z run:
July 10, 12Z run:
July 11, 06Z run:
July 11, 12Z run:
July 11, 18Z run:
July 11, 18Z run:
July 15, 06Z run:
July 15, 18Z run:
July 16, 00Z run:
July 16, 06Z run:
July 16, 12Z run:
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 6 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 17 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 21 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 21 false detections.
Ghost storm #26
I made tracks of this system in June already. This is identifiable with
a wave, near Cape Verde Islands in this surface analysis from July 12.
July 1, 06Z run:
July 9, 00Z run:
July 9, 06Z run:
July 9, 12Z run:
July 9, 18Z run:
Tracks of #27 were made only in June.
Ghost storm #28
This one at least got a mention in TWO.
July 1, 18Z run:
July 2, 06Z run:
July 2, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #29
This is identifiable with a feeble, short-lived trough marked here south of the Azores.
July 5, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #30
This existed only at very large lead time, and as such, it is not identifiable.
July 8, 18Z run:
July 10, 06Z run:
July 14, 06Z run:
July 23, 18Z run:
System #31 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Debby.
Ghost storm #32
The system is identifiable with a tropical wave, marked west of Cape Verde Islands in this surface analysis from July 16.
July 11, 06Z run:
July 11, 12Z run:
July 11, 18Z run:
Ghost storm #33
This system is identifiable with an extratropical low, marked here near coast of Virginia.
July 11, 06Z run:
July 16, 18Z run:
July 19, 18Z run:
Ghost storm #34
Despite very long lead time, this system showed remarkable consistency in cyclogenesis position and time. It makes it identifiable with a trough, marked here in eastern Gulf of Mexico.
July 11, 12Z run:
July 15, 06Z run:
July 15, 18Z run:
July 16, 00Z run:
July 16, 06Z run:
July 16, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #35
This is identifiable with the frontal system on Gulf Coast, see the surface chart from system #34.
July 18, 06Z run:
July 18, 18Z run:
July 19, 00Z run:
July 19, 06Z run:
July 19, 12Z run:
July 19, 18Z run:
Ghost storm #36
This is identifiable with a trough, marked here between SW Florida and Yucatan.
July 19, 18Z run:
July 20, 00Z run:
Ghost storm #37
This is best identifiable with a trough, passing through South Florida in this surface chart.
July 22, 18Z run:
July 24, 00Z run:
July 24, 06Z run:
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