Verification of ghost storm tracks of April-May 2018
In the calculations, crossover to Eastern Pacific is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover back to Atlantic is considered equal to regeneration.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 29 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 33 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 36 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 40 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 41 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 39 false detections.
Ghost storm #7
I have no idea, what this single track is. Long lead time makes it unidentifiable with any weather phenomenon which eventually occurred.
April 1, 18Z run:
Ghost storm #8
This system eventually became nothing. Not even anomalous rainfall, if I recall correctly. Major hurricane in SW Caribbean in April, really? Lol.
April 4, 06Z run:
April 4, 06Z run:
Ghost storm #9
Given how long lead time this single track had, I have no idea what this was actually about.
April 12, 06Z run:
April 12, 06Z run:
Ghost storm #10
This was just another ghost storm. Again, lots of LOL's to an early May major hurricane in Caribbean (or extreme SE EPac, for that matter).
April 17, 12Z run:
April 17, 18Z run:
April 18, 00Z run:
April 18, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #11
This isolated incident is not identifiable due to long lead time.
April 24, 18Z run:
April 24, 18Z run:
Storm number #12 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Alberto.
Ghost storm #13
This became rather impressive. Impressive enough to be mentioned in STWO... with 0%/0%, lol.
April 28, 18Z run:
Storm number #14 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Alberto. (Like #12)
Ghost storm #15
This peaked as rather impressive area of interest, with maximum of 30%/40% given in TWO.
May 8, 12Z run:
May 8, 18Z run:
May 9, 12Z run:
May 9, 18Z run:
Ghost storm #16
This was another supposed Western Caribbean cyclogenesis after Alberto... nothing happened.
May 10, 00Z run:
May 10, 00Z run:
Ghost storm #17
This signal is rather continuous with ghost storm #19, but occasionally the signal bifurcated to produce two cyclones.
May 17, 06Z run:
May 18, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #18
I have no idea, what this single track with long lead time is.
May 27, 06Z run:
Ghost storm #19
This was essentially the same signal as #17, even though bifurcation into two separate cyclogeneses in one run forced adoption of another identifier. Originally a broad central subtropical Atlantic signal with center jumping all around, eventually it persisted into shorter lead times, which allows identification with an actual low. Here the low is near North Carolina.
May 28, 06Z run:
May 29, 06Z run:
May 29, 12Z run:
May 30, 12Z run:
Ghost storm #20
Most of these tracks were made in June, so more about this in a later post.
May 29, 06Z run:
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