Verification of ghost storm tracks of June 2018


I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic 92 times in June 2018, and made tracks in all such situations. Tracks were made of seven systems.

At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 26 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 26 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 10 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 28 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 35 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 30 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 31 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 30 false detections.

 Ghost storm #20

There were a few tracks of this system in May already. This was identifiable with a tropical wave, which later became an impressive area of rainfall over South Texas.

June 1, 06Z run:
June 2, 00Z run:
June 2, 12Z run:
June 2, 18Z run:
June 3, 06Z run:
June 3, 12Z run:
June 4, 00Z run:
June 5, 12Z run:
June 6, 06Z run:
 June 6, 12Z run:
June 6, 18Z run:
June 7, 00Z run:
June 7, 06Z run:
 June 7, 12Z run:
June 7, 18Z run:
June 8, 06Z run:
June 9, 06Z run:
June 10, 06Z run:
June 10, 12Z run:
June 10, 18Z run:
June 11, 06Z run:
June 11, 12Z run:
June 11, 18Z run:
June 12, 00Z run:
June 12, 06Z run:
June 12, 12Z run:
June 13, 00Z run:
June 13, 06Z run:
June 13, 12Z run:
June 14, 06Z run:
June 14, 12Z run:
June 14, 18Z run:
June 15, 00Z run:

Ghost storm #21

This remained at long lead times, so it's not identifiable with anything significant.

June 2, 18Z run:

June 3, 06Z run:
June 3, 18Z run:
June 4, 06Z run:
June 4, 18Z run:
June 5, 18Z run:
June 6, 00Z run:
June 6, 12Z run:
June 6, 18Z run:
June 7, 00Z run:
June 7, 06Z run:
June 7, 12Z run:

Ghost storm #22

This is not identifiable with anything.

June 10, 18Z run:
June 11, 18Z run:
June 12, 00Z run:
June 12, 06Z run:
June 12, 12Z run:
June 13, 00Z run:
June 13, 06Z run:
June 13, 12Z run:
 June 13, 18Z run:
June 14, 06Z run:
June 14, 12Z run:
June 14, 18Z run:
June 15, 00Z run:
June 15, 06Z run:

Ghost storm #23

This system is best identifiable with this feeble 1018mbar low south of Azores.


June 10, 18Z run:

June 11, 12Z run:
June 11, 18Z run:
June 12, 00Z run:
June 12, 06Z run:
June 12, 12Z run:
June 13, 00Z run:
June 15, 00Z run:
June 19, 12Z run:
June 19, 18Z run:
June 20, 06Z run:
June 20, 12Z run:
June 21, 06Z run:
June 21, 12Z run:

Storm number #24 was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Chris.
 

Ghost storm #25

This is not identifiable due to large lead time.
June 19, 12Z run:
June 19, 18Z run:
June 22, 06Z run:
June 24, 06Z run:
June 24, 12Z run:
June 24, 18Z run:
 June 25, 06Z run:
June 25, 18Z run:
 June 26, 00Z run:
 June 26, 06Z run:
June 26, 12Z run:
June 26, 18Z run:
June 27, 00Z run:
June 27, 06Z run:
June 27, 18Z run:
June 28, 00Z run:

Ghost storm #26

Majority of these tracks were made in July, more about this in later post.

June 28, 18Z run:
 June 29, 00Z run:

Ghost storm #27

This isolated incident is not identifiable due to long lead time.

June 30, 00Z run:

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