Verification of tracks made of Nadine using GEFS mean fields
I made two tracks of Tropical Storm Nadine. Additionally, within 384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were 15 instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. In the rare cases I found the cyclogenesis, formation time was very well predicted; dissipation time too, on average.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 7, 12Z thru October 13, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the two tracks, formation times ranged between October 9, 06Z and October 9, 12Z. Average was October 9, 09Z and median was October 9, 09Z.
In the 17 cases (2 tracks and 15 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.65 and median was Category -2.
In the two tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 11, 06Z and October 14, 18Z. Average was October 13, 00Z and median was October 13, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 284 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 290 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 180 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 504 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 355 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 28, 06Z run:
October 8, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
September 23, 06Z
September 23, 12Z
September 24, 06Z
September 25, 06Z
September 25, 12Z
September 26, 06Z
September 27, 06Z
September 30, 12Z
October 1, 06Z
October 2, 12Z
October 3, 06Z
October 4, 06Z
October 5, 06Z
October 6, 06Z
October 7, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 7, 12Z thru October 13, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the two tracks, formation times ranged between October 9, 06Z and October 9, 12Z. Average was October 9, 09Z and median was October 9, 09Z.
In the 17 cases (2 tracks and 15 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -1.65 and median was Category -2.
In the two tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 11, 06Z and October 14, 18Z. Average was October 13, 00Z and median was October 13, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 284 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 290 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 180 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 504 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 355 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
September 28, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
September 23, 06Z
September 23, 12Z
September 24, 06Z
September 25, 06Z
September 25, 12Z
September 26, 06Z
September 27, 06Z
September 30, 12Z
October 1, 06Z
October 2, 12Z
October 3, 06Z
October 4, 06Z
October 5, 06Z
October 6, 06Z
October 7, 06Z
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