Verification of tracks made on Leslie using GEFS mean fields
I made 12 tracks about Hurricane Leslie from 11 runs. In one run, I made a separate track of its regeneration, and for the purpose of this assessment, those are considered a single track. So, I made 11 tracks. Additionally, within 384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were eight instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. Peak intensity was variable, so was longevity, so was time of cyclogenesis.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 22, 00Z thru October 14, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 11 tracks, formation times ranged between September 20, 06Z and September 30, 18Z. Average was September 23, 17Z and median was September 23, 00Z.
In the 19 cases (11 tracks and 8 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.05 and median was Category 0.
In the 11 tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 26, 18Z and October 16, 00Z. Average was October 4, 08Z and median was October 3, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 1 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 245 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparisons produce an average error of 166 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 257 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 467 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 404 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 539 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 629 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 5 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 646 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 6 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 882 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 9 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 782 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 4 hits, 1 false detections and 11 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 681 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 12 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 678 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 11 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 681 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 6, 06Z run:
September 7, 12Z run:
September 9, 12Z run:
September 15, 06Z run:
September 15, 18Z run:
September 17, 06Z run:
September 18, 06Z run:
September 18, 12Z run:
September 20, 00Z run:
September 22, 12Z run, original cyclogenesis:
and regeneration:
September 23, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
September 9, 18Z
September 10, 12Z
September 13, 18Z
September 14, 12Z
September 16, 06Z
September 16, 18Z
September 17, 12Z
September 19, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 22, 00Z thru October 14, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 11 tracks, formation times ranged between September 20, 06Z and September 30, 18Z. Average was September 23, 17Z and median was September 23, 00Z.
In the 19 cases (11 tracks and 8 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category -0.05 and median was Category 0.
In the 11 tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 26, 18Z and October 16, 00Z. Average was October 4, 08Z and median was October 3, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 days (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 1 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 245 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparisons produce an average error of 166 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 257 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 467 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 4 hits, 3 false detections and 2 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 404 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 539 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 629 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 5 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 646 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 6 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 882 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 3 false detections and 9 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 782 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 4 hits, 1 false detections and 11 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 681 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 12 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 678 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 11 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 681 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 6, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
September 9, 18Z
September 10, 12Z
September 13, 18Z
September 14, 12Z
September 16, 06Z
September 16, 18Z
September 17, 12Z
September 19, 06Z
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