Verification of tracks made on Xenophon using GEFS mean fields

I made eight tracks about Hurricane Xenophon. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Formation and dissipation times were both generally too late. Intensity forecast was variable.

As of this analysis, ESTOFEX discussion initial positions are available September 27, 18Z thru September 30, 06Z with 12-hour interval, as well as a special one on September 29 at 12Z. I am interpolating the rest of 00Z and 12Z points. Position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. I assume cyclogenesis at September 27, 18Z, and that Xenophon had ceased to be a (sub)tropical cyclone by September 30, 12Z, since information is lacking.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the eight tracks, formation times ranged between September 28, 06Z and September 29, 12Z. Average was September 28, 17Z and median was September 28, 15Z.

In the 12 cases (8 tracks and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category 0 and median was Category 0.

In the eight tracks, dissipation times ranged between September 30, 00Z and October 2, 12Z. Average was October 1, 12Z and median was October 1, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 65 nautical miles. 

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 94 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 138 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 1 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 121 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 120 nautical miles. 

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparison produces an average error of 150 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hits, 2 false detections and 1 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 291 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 1 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

 

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons. 

 

Circle coloration scheme

 

 

Here are the tracks once again.

 

 September 22, 12Z run:

 

 September 23, 12Z run:

September 23, 18Z run:

September 24, 06Z run:

September 25, 06Z run:

September 25, 12Z run:

 September 26, 06Z run:

September 27, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from following runs:


September 18, 12Z

September 19, 06Z

September 20, 00Z

September 23, 06Z