Verification of tracks made of Barry using GEFS mean fields
I made six tracks of Hurricane Barry. Additionally, within 384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were 11 instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 7, 12Z thru July 14, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. In the absence of best track for the rest of Barry's existence, dissipation is assumed to be at July 16, 00Z.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the six tracks, formation times ranged between July 10, 06Z and July 12, 00Z. Average was July 11, 03Z and median was July 11, 09Z.
In the 17 cases (6 tracks and 11 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category -0.76 and median was Category -2.
In the six tracks, dissipation times ranged between July 14, 00Z and July 26, 18Z. Average was July 18, 16Z and median was July 16, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 48 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 51 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 123 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 224 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 228 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 166 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 205 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 256 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 346 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 220 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
July 4, 06Z run:
July 5, 06Z run:
July 6, 06Z run:
July 7, 06Z run:
July 8, 06Z run:
July 9, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
June 25, 12Z
June 25, 18Z
June 26, 06Z
June 26, 12Z
June 27, 06Z
June 28, 06Z
June 30, 12Z
June 30, 18Z
July 1, 06Z
July 2, 06Z
July 3, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 7, 12Z thru July 14, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan. In the absence of best track for the rest of Barry's existence, dissipation is assumed to be at July 16, 00Z.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the six tracks, formation times ranged between July 10, 06Z and July 12, 00Z. Average was July 11, 03Z and median was July 11, 09Z.
In the 17 cases (6 tracks and 11 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category -0.76 and median was Category -2.
In the six tracks, dissipation times ranged between July 14, 00Z and July 26, 18Z. Average was July 18, 16Z and median was July 16, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 48 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 51 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 123 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 224 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 228 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 166 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 205 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 256 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 346 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 220 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 6 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
July 4, 06Z run:
July 5, 06Z run:
July 6, 06Z run:
July 7, 06Z run:
July 8, 06Z run:
July 9, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from following runs:
June 25, 12Z
June 25, 18Z
June 26, 06Z
June 26, 12Z
June 27, 06Z
June 28, 06Z
June 30, 12Z
June 30, 18Z
July 1, 06Z
July 2, 06Z
July 3, 06Z
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