Verification of tracks made on Philippe (2017) using GEFS mean fields
Repost from early 2018
I made 25 tracks about Tropical Storm Philippe. Additionally, there were three cases, where I missed cyclogenesis. Timing of cyclogenesis varied greatly. Position errors were small for those times, when Philippe or its precursor disturbance was in the Caribbean. Most tracks missed Philippe being eventually picked by a trough. Intensity was overestimated, and so was timespan as tropical cyclone.
My intensity analysis begins at first time with one of my tracks showing cyclogenesis, October 19, 12Z. Position analysis begins at first time with best track data, October 20, 06Z. Position analysis ends at last time with best track data, October 29, 18Z. Intensity analysis ends at November 12, 18Z, after which none of my tracks continued.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2".
I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my track lack a tropical cyclone.
In the 25 tracks, formation times ranged between October 19, 12Z and October 29, 12Z. Median was October 27, 12Z and average was October 26, 06Z.
The 28 peak intensities (those three complete misses included) ranged between non-formation (Category -2) and Category 5. Median was Category 2 and average was Category 2.0.
Dissipation times ranged between October 24, 18Z and November 13, 00Z. Median was October 31, 12Z and average was November 1, 15Z.
The following lines will have the format:
lead time ... number of true detections ... number of misses ... number of false detections ... number of position comparisons ... number of intensity comparisons ... average error in intensity category ... bias in intensity category ... average error in latitude ... bias in latitude ... average error in longitude ... bias in longitude ... upper limit for scalar error in position (nautical miles)... calculated scalar bias in position (nautical miles)
168h ... 2 ... 0 ... 2 ... 2 ... 4 ... 3.0 ... +3.0 ... 9.9 ... 9.9S ... 6.8 ... 6.8W ... 710 ... 710
192h ... 0 ... 0 ... 3 ... 0 ... 3 ... 4.0 ... +4.0 ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A
216h ... 0 ... 0 ... 3 ... 0 ... 3 ... 3.0 ... +3.0 ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A
240h ... 0 ... 3 ... 4 ... 3 ... 7 ... 2.1 ... +0.7 ... 2.4 ... 2.2S ... 2.2 ... 0.3E ... 190 ... 130
264h ... 5 ... 1 ... 5 ... 8 ... 11 ... 0.9 ... +0.5 ... 6.2 ... 5.5S ... 3.4 ... 1.2W ... 420 ... 340
288h ... 4 ... 1 ... 10 ... 8 ... 15 ... 2.2 ... +1.8 ... 5.5 ... 2.8S ... 3.5 ... 0.3W ... 390 ... 170
312h ... 1 ... 0 ... 14 ... 7 ... 15 ... 3.3 ... +3.3 ... 3.6 ... 0.0 ... 3.1 ... 0.3W ... 280 ... 20
336h ... 0 ... 0 ... 15 ... 6 ... 15 ... 3.3 ... +3.3 ... 1.0 ... 0.8N ... 3.3 ... 1.0E ... 200 ... 80
360h ... 0 ... 0 ... 14 ... 7 ... 14 ... 3.1 ... +3.1 ... 1.2 ... 0.4N ... 4.5 ... 2.6E ... 270 ... 150
384h ... 0 ... 0 ... 12 ... 6 ... 12 ... 3.3 ... +3.3 ... 1.6 ... 0.7N ... 5.3 ... 3.2E ... 320 ... 190
408h ... 0 ... 0 ... 9 ... 5 ... 9 ... 3.7 ... +3.7 ... 1.6 ... 1.2S ... 3.8 ... 2.0E ... 240 ... 140
432h ... 1 ... 1 ... 8 ... 5 ... 10 ... 3.9 ... +3.7 ... 3.8 ... 3.8S ... 5.6 ... 3.7E ... 400 ... 310
456h ... 4 ... 1 ... 5 ... 5 ... 10 ... 3.6 ... +3.0 ... 8.3 ... 8.3S ... 7.8 ... 3.3E ... 670 ... 530
480h ... 3 ... 0 ... 5 ... 3 ... 8 ... 2.8 ... +2.8 ... 12.1 ... 12.1S ... 7.7 ... 7.7E ... 850 ... 850
Here are the tracks once again.
October 8, 06Z run:
October 9, 06Z run:
October 9, 12Z run:
October 9, 18Z run:
October 10, 06Z run:
October 10, 12Z run:
October 10, 18Z run:
October 16, 18Z run:
October 17, 00Z run:
October 17, 06Z run:
October 17, 12Z run:
October 17, 18Z run:
October 18, 00Z run:
October 18, 06Z run:
October 18, 12Z run:
October 18, 18Z run:
October 19, 06Z run:
October 22, 12Z run:
October 22, 18Z run:
October 23, 06Z run:
October 23, 12Z run:
October 23, 18Z run:
October 24, 06Z run:
October 24, 12Z run:
October 24, 18Z run:
The complete misses were runs initialized at:
October 25, 06Z
October 25, 12Z
October 26, 12Z
I made 25 tracks about Tropical Storm Philippe. Additionally, there were three cases, where I missed cyclogenesis. Timing of cyclogenesis varied greatly. Position errors were small for those times, when Philippe or its precursor disturbance was in the Caribbean. Most tracks missed Philippe being eventually picked by a trough. Intensity was overestimated, and so was timespan as tropical cyclone.
My intensity analysis begins at first time with one of my tracks showing cyclogenesis, October 19, 12Z. Position analysis begins at first time with best track data, October 20, 06Z. Position analysis ends at last time with best track data, October 29, 18Z. Intensity analysis ends at November 12, 18Z, after which none of my tracks continued.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical storms as "Category 0", tropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical cyclone as "Category -2".
I compare intensities only in cases, when either the best track data or my track has a tropical cyclone, or both. In other words, I leave the comparison out of calculations, if both best track data and my track lack a tropical cyclone.
In the 25 tracks, formation times ranged between October 19, 12Z and October 29, 12Z. Median was October 27, 12Z and average was October 26, 06Z.
The 28 peak intensities (those three complete misses included) ranged between non-formation (Category -2) and Category 5. Median was Category 2 and average was Category 2.0.
Dissipation times ranged between October 24, 18Z and November 13, 00Z. Median was October 31, 12Z and average was November 1, 15Z.
The following lines will have the format:
lead time ... number of true detections ... number of misses ... number of false detections ... number of position comparisons ... number of intensity comparisons ... average error in intensity category ... bias in intensity category ... average error in latitude ... bias in latitude ... average error in longitude ... bias in longitude ... upper limit for scalar error in position (nautical miles)... calculated scalar bias in position (nautical miles)
168h ... 2 ... 0 ... 2 ... 2 ... 4 ... 3.0 ... +3.0 ... 9.9 ... 9.9S ... 6.8 ... 6.8W ... 710 ... 710
192h ... 0 ... 0 ... 3 ... 0 ... 3 ... 4.0 ... +4.0 ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A
216h ... 0 ... 0 ... 3 ... 0 ... 3 ... 3.0 ... +3.0 ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A ... N/A
240h ... 0 ... 3 ... 4 ... 3 ... 7 ... 2.1 ... +0.7 ... 2.4 ... 2.2S ... 2.2 ... 0.3E ... 190 ... 130
264h ... 5 ... 1 ... 5 ... 8 ... 11 ... 0.9 ... +0.5 ... 6.2 ... 5.5S ... 3.4 ... 1.2W ... 420 ... 340
288h ... 4 ... 1 ... 10 ... 8 ... 15 ... 2.2 ... +1.8 ... 5.5 ... 2.8S ... 3.5 ... 0.3W ... 390 ... 170
312h ... 1 ... 0 ... 14 ... 7 ... 15 ... 3.3 ... +3.3 ... 3.6 ... 0.0 ... 3.1 ... 0.3W ... 280 ... 20
336h ... 0 ... 0 ... 15 ... 6 ... 15 ... 3.3 ... +3.3 ... 1.0 ... 0.8N ... 3.3 ... 1.0E ... 200 ... 80
360h ... 0 ... 0 ... 14 ... 7 ... 14 ... 3.1 ... +3.1 ... 1.2 ... 0.4N ... 4.5 ... 2.6E ... 270 ... 150
384h ... 0 ... 0 ... 12 ... 6 ... 12 ... 3.3 ... +3.3 ... 1.6 ... 0.7N ... 5.3 ... 3.2E ... 320 ... 190
408h ... 0 ... 0 ... 9 ... 5 ... 9 ... 3.7 ... +3.7 ... 1.6 ... 1.2S ... 3.8 ... 2.0E ... 240 ... 140
432h ... 1 ... 1 ... 8 ... 5 ... 10 ... 3.9 ... +3.7 ... 3.8 ... 3.8S ... 5.6 ... 3.7E ... 400 ... 310
456h ... 4 ... 1 ... 5 ... 5 ... 10 ... 3.6 ... +3.0 ... 8.3 ... 8.3S ... 7.8 ... 3.3E ... 670 ... 530
480h ... 3 ... 0 ... 5 ... 3 ... 8 ... 2.8 ... +2.8 ... 12.1 ... 12.1S ... 7.7 ... 7.7E ... 850 ... 850
Here are the tracks once again.
October 8, 06Z run:
October 9, 06Z run:
October 9, 12Z run:
October 9, 18Z run:
October 10, 06Z run:
October 10, 12Z run:
October 10, 18Z run:
October 16, 18Z run:
October 17, 00Z run:
October 17, 06Z run:
October 17, 12Z run:
October 17, 18Z run:
October 18, 00Z run:
October 18, 06Z run:
October 18, 12Z run:
October 18, 18Z run:
October 19, 06Z run:
October 22, 12Z run:
October 22, 18Z run:
October 23, 06Z run:
October 23, 12Z run:
October 23, 18Z run:
October 24, 06Z run:
October 24, 12Z run:
October 24, 18Z run:
The complete misses were runs initialized at:
October 25, 06Z
October 25, 12Z
October 26, 12Z
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