Verification of non-detection of Humberto

I made no tracks of Hurricane Humberto. Within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, where I missed cyclogenesis. This situation has the dubious honor of being the first case, when I missed a major hurricane entirely!

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 1 miss.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 misses.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 misses.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 4 misses.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 5 misses.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 4 misses.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 4 misses.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 4 misses.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 4 misses.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 3 misses.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 3 misses.

The GEFS runs with complete misses were:

August 29, 00Z
August 31, 00Z
September 2, 00Z
September 4, 00Z
September 6, 06Z

September 7, 06Z
September 8, 06Z
September 10, 06Z
September 11, 06Z
September 13, 00Z

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Verification of tracks made of Jimena

2024 hurricane season predictions

Advisory list