Verification of tracks made of Pablo using GEFS mean fields

I made three tracks of Hurricane Pablo. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. All the tracks showed merely a subtropical cyclone.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 24, 12Z thru October 28, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks, formation times ranged between October 25, 18Z and October 27, 18Z. Average was October 27, 00Z and median was October 27, 12Z.

In the thirteen cases (3 tracks and 10 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.62 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 28, 12Z and October 28, 18Z. Average was October 28, 14Z and median was October 28, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 189 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 253 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 315 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

October 22, 06Z run:

October 23, 06Z run:

October 24, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

October 11, 06Z
October 13, 06Z
October 14, 12Z
October 15, 12Z
October 16, 06Z

October 17, 06Z
October 18, 06Z
October 19, 06Z
October 20, 06Z
October 21, 06Z