Verification of tracks made of Rebekah using GEFS mean fields

I made three tracks of Subtropical Storm Rebekah. Additionally, within 384 hours of cyclogenesis, there were thirteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. All the detections were at short lead times.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 27, 06Z thru November 1, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

 

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks, formation times ranged between October 30, 06Z and October 30, 12Z. Average was October 30, 08Z and median was October 30, 06Z.

In the sixteen cases (3 tracks and 13 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 0. Average was Category -1.63 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks, dissipation times ranged between November 1, 12Z and November 2, 18Z. Average was November 2, 02Z and median was November 2, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 31 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 70 nautical miles. 

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 69 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 206 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons. 

 

Circle coloration scheme

 

 

Here are the tracks once again.

October 28, 06Z run:

 

 

October 29, 06Z run:

October 30, 06Z run:

The complete misses were from the following runs:

 

October 14, 12Z

October 15, 12Z

October 16, 06Z

October 17, 06Z

October 18, 06Z

 

October 19, 06Z

October 20, 06Z

October 21, 06Z

October 22, 06Z

October 23, 06Z

 

October 24, 06Z

October 27, 06Z

October 27, 18Z