Verification of tracks made of TD 15 using GEFS mean fields
I made six tracks of Tropical Depression Fifteen. Additionally, within
384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 12, 12Z thru October 16, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the six tracks, formation times ranged between October 14, 06Z and October 15, 18Z. Average was October 15, 04Z and median was October 15, 09Z.
In the ten cases (6 tracks and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -0.20 and median was Category 0.
In the six tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 17, 12Z and October 19, 12Z. Average was October 18, 18Z and median was October 19, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 94 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 171 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 285 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 349 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 167 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 389 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 346 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 447 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 366 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 29, 12Z run:
September 30, 12Z run:
October 5, 06Z run:
October 7, 06Z run:
October 9, 06Z run:
October 11, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
October 2, 06Z
October 3, 06Z
October 13, 06Z
October 14, 12Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available October 12, 12Z thru October 16, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the six tracks, formation times ranged between October 14, 06Z and October 15, 18Z. Average was October 15, 04Z and median was October 15, 09Z.
In the ten cases (6 tracks and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 2. Average was Category -0.20 and median was Category 0.
In the six tracks, dissipation times ranged between October 17, 12Z and October 19, 12Z. Average was October 18, 18Z and median was October 19, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 94 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 171 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 285 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 349 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 167 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 389 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 346 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 447 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 366 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
September 29, 12Z run:
September 30, 12Z run:
October 5, 06Z run:
October 7, 06Z run:
October 9, 06Z run:
October 11, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
October 2, 06Z
October 3, 06Z
October 13, 06Z
October 14, 12Z
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