Verification of tracks made of Raymond using GEFS mean fields
I made eight tracks of Tropical Storm Raymond. Additionally, within
384
hours of cyclogenesis, there were nine instances, when I missed
cyclogenesis entirely. Detection rate was good, and so were formation time and position accuracy. Dissipation time was typically too late.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available November 13, 06Z thru November 17, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the eight tracks, formation times ranged between November 13, 06Z and November 18, 00Z. Average was November 15, 05Z and median was November 15, 00Z.
In the seventeen cases (8 tracks and 9 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category -0.59 and median was Category -2.
In the eight tracks, dissipation times ranged between November 17, 12Z and November 21, 00Z. Average was November 19, 06Z and median was November 19, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 83 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 126 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 129 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 84 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 111 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 173 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 185 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 2 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 171 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 184 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 216 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 175 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
November 3, 12Z run:
November 5, 18Z run:
November 7, 06Z run:
November 8, 06Z run:
November 10, 06Z run:
November 11, 06Z run:
November 12, 06Z run:
November 13, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
October 30, 06Z
October 31, 06Z
November 1, 06Z
November 2, 06Z
November 3, 06Z
November 4, 06Z
November 5, 06Z
November 6, 06Z
November 9, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available November 13, 06Z thru November 17, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the eight tracks, formation times ranged between November 13, 06Z and November 18, 00Z. Average was November 15, 05Z and median was November 15, 00Z.
In the seventeen cases (8 tracks and 9 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 4. Average was Category -0.59 and median was Category -2.
In the eight tracks, dissipation times ranged between November 17, 12Z and November 21, 00Z. Average was November 19, 06Z and median was November 19, 06Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 83 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 126 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 129 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 84 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 111 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 173 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 185 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 2 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 171 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 184 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 216 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 175 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
November 3, 12Z run:
November 5, 18Z run:
November 7, 06Z run:
November 8, 06Z run:
November 10, 06Z run:
November 11, 06Z run:
November 12, 06Z run:
November 13, 06Z run:
The complete misses were from the following runs:
October 30, 06Z
October 31, 06Z
November 1, 06Z
November 2, 06Z
November 3, 06Z
November 4, 06Z
November 5, 06Z
November 6, 06Z
November 9, 06Z
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