Verification of East Pacific ghost storm tracks of November-December 2019


I falsely detected tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of the equator and east of 140W longitude) 11 times in November and December of 2019. During that period, I falsely detected crossover from Atlantic to East Pacific thrice. Tracks were made of nine systems.

In the calculations, crossover into Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation or regeneration. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is also considered equal to dissipation.
 
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 5 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 6 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 6 false detections.  

Circle coloration scheme


Ghost storm L#76

These Atlantic cyclogeneses began in October. Not all of them included crossover to EPac.
 
November 1, 06Z run:
 
 

Ghost storm E#55

These tracks began in October. This ended up being just disorganized cloudiness (near 10N 115W in the following TWO graphic)
 

November 9, 06Z run:


System E#56

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Raymond.

 System E#57

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) Raymond.

 System E#58

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was TD 21E.

Ghost storm E#59    

This can't be identified.

November 17, 12Z run:


Ghost storm L#78

There are several of these Atlantic-originating tracks, but only one with a crossover to East Pacific.

November 20, 06Z run:


Ghost storm E#60

November 22, 12Z run:


November 23, 06Z run:


November 25, 12Z run:


Ghost storm L#81

There were two of these Atlantic tracks ; only one had a crossover.

November 24, 06Z run:


Ghost storm E#61

December 2, 12Z run:





December 5, 12Z run:


December 6, 12Z run:


Ghost storm E#62


December 11, 12Z run:


Ghost storm E#63

December 21, 12Z run:


December 24, 12Z run:

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