Verification of tracks made of TD 1-E
I made 53 tracks of Tropical Depression One-E, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 21 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Detection rate was good. Peak intensity was hugely overestimated. Timing of formation was originally way too early, while dissipation time was also mostly somewhat too early. Longevity was overestimated. Position accuracy was very good in the long range, and very poor in the short range.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available April 22, 12Z thru April 26, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 53 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between April 13, 18Z and April 25, 18Z. Average was April 21, 03Z and median was April 20, 12Z.
In the 75 cases (54 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical depression would remain the peak intensity, and 21 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.03 and median was Category 0.
In the 56 tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between April 18, 06Z and May 3, 06Z. Average was April 25, 09Z and median was April 26, 03Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 40 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 5 false detections and 0 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 116 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 5 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 250 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 6 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 368 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 6 false detection and 1 miss. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 370 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 8 false detections and 2 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 400 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 7 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 478 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 7 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 343 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 7 false detections and 2 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 375 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 4 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 427 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 7 false detections and 3 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 443 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 hits, 9 false detections and 1 miss. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 418 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 11 false detections and 1 miss. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 461 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 13 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 367 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 13 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 303 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 hits, 16 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 275 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 14 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 455 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 14 false detections and 5 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 249 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 14 false detections and 4 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 362 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 11 false detections and 3 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 379 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
March 29, 18Z:
March 31, 00Z:
March 31, 06Z:
March 31, 18Z:
April 2, 00Z:
April 2, 12Z:
April 2, 18Z:
April 3, 00Z:
April 3, 06Z:
April 4, 00Z:
April 4, 12Z:
April 5, 00Z:
April 5, 06Z:
April 5, 12Z:
April 6, 00Z:
April 6, 06Z:
April 6, 12Z:
April 6, 18Z:
April 7, 06Z:
April 7, 12Z:
April 7, 18Z:
April 8, 06Z:
April 10, 06Z:
April 10, 12Z:
April 11, 06Z:
April 11, 12Z:
April 12, 06Z:
April 12, 12Z:
April 12, 18Z:
April 13, 06Z:
April 13, 12Z:
April 13, 18Z:
April 14, 06Z:
April 14, 12Z:
April 16, 06Z:
April 16, 12Z:
April 17, 06Z:
April 17, 12Z:
April 17, 18Z:
April 18, 06Z:
April 20, 06Z:
April 20, 12Z:
April 21, 06Z:
April 21, 12Z:
April 22, 06Z:
April 22, 12Z:
April 23, 06Z:
April 23, 12Z:
April 23, 18Z:
April 24, 06Z:
April 24, 12Z:
April 24, 18Z:
April 25, 06Z:
April 25, 12Z:
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 06Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
April 8, 00Z
April 8, 12Z
April 8, 18Z
April 9, 06Z
April 9, 12Z
April 9, 18Z
April 10, 00Z
April 10, 18Z
April 11, 18Z
April 15, 00Z
April 15, 06Z
April 15, 12Z
April 16, 00Z
April 18, 12Z
April 18, 18Z
April 19, 06Z
April 19, 12Z
April 19, 18Z
April 20, 18Z
April 21, 18Z
April 22, 18Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available April 22, 12Z thru April 26, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 53 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between April 13, 18Z and April 25, 18Z. Average was April 21, 03Z and median was April 20, 12Z.
In the 75 cases (54 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical depression would remain the peak intensity, and 21 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.03 and median was Category 0.
In the 56 tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between April 18, 06Z and May 3, 06Z. Average was April 25, 09Z and median was April 26, 03Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 4 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 40 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 4 hits, 5 false detections and 0 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 116 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 3 hits, 5 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 250 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 3 hits, 6 false detections and 1 miss. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 368 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 6 false detection and 1 miss. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 370 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 8 false detections and 2 misses. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 400 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 7 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 478 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 7 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 343 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 7 false detections and 2 misses. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 375 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 4 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 427 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 7 false detections and 3 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 443 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 3 hits, 9 false detections and 1 miss. 7 available position comparisons produce an average error of 418 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 3 hits, 11 false detections and 1 miss. 6 available position comparisons produce an average error of 461 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 1 hit, 13 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 367 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 13 false detections and 2 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 303 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 hits, 16 false detections and 3 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 275 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 14 false detections and 4 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 455 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 14 false detections and 5 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 249 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 14 false detections and 4 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 362 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 11 false detections and 3 misses. 8 available position comparisons produce an average error of 379 nautical miles.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
March 29, 18Z:
March 31, 00Z:
March 31, 06Z:
March 31, 18Z:
April 2, 00Z:
April 2, 12Z:
April 2, 18Z:
April 3, 00Z:
April 3, 06Z:
April 4, 00Z:
April 4, 12Z:
April 5, 00Z:
April 5, 06Z:
April 5, 12Z:
April 6, 00Z:
April 6, 06Z:
April 6, 12Z:
April 6, 18Z:
April 7, 06Z:
April 7, 12Z:
April 7, 18Z:
April 8, 06Z:
April 10, 06Z:
April 10, 12Z:
April 11, 06Z:
April 11, 12Z:
April 12, 06Z:
April 12, 12Z:
April 12, 18Z:
April 13, 06Z:
April 13, 12Z:
April 13, 18Z:
April 14, 06Z:
April 14, 12Z:
April 16, 06Z:
April 16, 12Z:
April 17, 06Z:
April 17, 12Z:
April 17, 18Z:
April 18, 06Z:
April 20, 06Z:
April 20, 12Z:
April 21, 06Z:
April 21, 12Z:
April 22, 06Z:
April 22, 12Z:
April 23, 06Z:
April 23, 12Z:
April 23, 18Z:
April 24, 06Z:
April 24, 12Z:
April 24, 18Z:
April 25, 06Z:
April 25, 12Z:
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 06Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
April 8, 00Z
April 8, 12Z
April 8, 18Z
April 9, 06Z
April 9, 12Z
April 9, 18Z
April 10, 00Z
April 10, 18Z
April 11, 18Z
April 15, 00Z
April 15, 06Z
April 15, 12Z
April 16, 00Z
April 18, 12Z
April 18, 18Z
April 19, 06Z
April 19, 12Z
April 19, 18Z
April 20, 18Z
April 21, 18Z
April 22, 18Z
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