Verification of tracks made of Dolly
I made no tracks of Dolly before operationally assessed cyclogenesis. I made one track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 24 instances,
when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 20, 12Z thru June 24, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable.
In the 24 cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 24 complete misses), range, average and median of peak intensity were -2.
In the one track (made before operationally recognized dissipation), dissipation time had range, average and median of June 25, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 49 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 20, 12Z thru June 24, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
Range, average and median of formation time are not applicable.
In the 24 cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 24 complete misses), range, average and median of peak intensity were -2.
In the one track (made before operationally recognized dissipation), dissipation time had range, average and median of June 25, 00Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 49 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here is the track once again.
Here is the track once again.
June 23, 12Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
June 4, 06Z
June 5, 12Z
June 6, 12Z
June 7, 12Z
June 7, 18Z
June 8, 18Z
June 9, 12Z
June 9, 18Z
June 10, 12Z
June 10, 18Z
June 13, 12Z
June 15, 00Z
June 15, 12Z
June 15, 18Z
June 16, 12Z
June 17, 06Z
June 17, 18Z
June 18, 06Z
June 18, 12Z
June 19, 06Z
June 20, 06Z
June 21, 06Z
June 21, 12Z
June 22, 06Z
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