Verification of Atlantic ghost storm tracks of January-May 2020

I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in Atlantic (north of equator and west of Greenwich) 94 times in January thru May of 2020. Additionally, false Gulf of Guinea cyclogeneses lead to crossover into the basin 3 times. Tracks were made of 25 systems.

In the calculations, crossover into East Pacific as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to dissipation, and crossover from Gulf of Guinea as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 false detections.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 6 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 14 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 19 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 20 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 26 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 30 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 20 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 10 false detections.

Ghost storm L#01

 This system is shown as frontal 1011mbar low west of the Azores in the synoptic chart below.


January 17, 06Z:






January 18, 06Z:





January 19, 06Z:





Ghost storm L#02

This system, which I once projected to enter Atlantic and to become subtropical, was actually a non-tropical low in western Mediterranean, named Ilka by FBU, and named Gloria by AEMET.


January 19, 18Z:


Ghost storm L#03

This is best identifiable with a trough near 25N 50W in the synoptic chart below.


February 16, 12Z:


February 17, 12Z:





February 27, 12Z:





February 27, 18Z:


February 28, 12Z:


Ghost storm G#01

This unidentifiable Gulf of Guinea ghost crossed prime meridian just before dissipation.

February 26, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#04

This system is completely unidentifiable due to long lead time.

March 9, 18Z:


March 10, 06Z:


March 10, 12Z:


March 11, 00Z:


March 11, 18Z:


March 12, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#05

This lone track is not identifiable due to long lead time.

March 12, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#06

This system is shown as a low pressure center near 20N 60W in the synoptic chart below.


March 13, 12Z:





March 14, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#07

This system is shown as a 995mbar low near 35N 60W in the synoptic chart below.


Earlier it tried to become subtropical as it approached northeast U.S., however it ended up over cool waters.



March 29, 00Z:


March 29, 18Z:


March 30, 18Z:


March 31, 00Z:


March 31, 06Z:


March 31, 18Z:


April 1, 12Z:


April 1, 18Z:


April 2, 00Z:


Ghost storm L#08

This lone long-range ghost is not identifiable.


Ghost storm G#02

This DOOM ghost crossover from Gulf of Guinea is not identifiable with anything real.

April 1, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#09

This system is not identifiable.

April 2, 12Z:


April 2, 18Z:


April 3, 00Z:


Ghost storm L#10

This system is not identifiable due to long lead time.

April 8, 12Z:


April 11, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#11

This definitely isn't related to anything real.

April 10, 06Z:


Ghost storm L#12

This is not identifiable at all in Atlantic. At times, the signal produced cyclogenesis only in East Pacific (being then designated E#16)

April 15, 06Z:





April 16, 00Z:





April 20, 06Z:


April 21, 06Z:





April 21, 18Z:


April 22, 06Z:


April 22, 12Z:


April 22, 18Z:


April 23, 06Z:


April 23, 18Z:


April 24, 06Z:


Ghost storm L#13

This is in no way identifiable in Atlantic. Sometimes the signal justified a track only in East Pacific, being then known as E#17, and later as E#18.

April 26, 18Z:


April 30, 06Z:


May 1, 06Z:


May 1, 12Z:


May 1, 18Z:


Ghost storm L#14

This lone track is identifiable with the 1000mbar low north of the Azores in the following synoptic chart.


April 29, 18Z:


Ghost storm L#15

Despite occasional relative proximity to real-life Arthur, this is not actually identifiable.

May 1, 12Z:


May 2, 06Z:


May 2, 12Z:


May 3, 06Z:





Ghost storm L#16

This lone system is not identifiable in Atlantic. Sometimes, the same signal produced cyclogenesis only in East Pacific (known then as E#20).

May 8, 06Z:


System L#17

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Bertha.

System L#18

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Arthur. 

Ghost storm L#19 

This is not identifiable at all.

May 11, 06Z:


May 11, 18Z:





May 15, 12Z:


May 16, 06Z:


May 16, 12Z:


May 16, 18Z:


Ghost storm G#03

This unidentifiable system also had a track without crossover. Only the one track with crossing to west of prime meridian is shown.

May 16, 18Z:





Ghost storm L#20

This extremely long-range system moved slowly west. Eventually the signal crossed wholly into East Pacific (as E#31 and E#36) , while continuing to delay in timing. Those designations, and EPac part of L#20, are identified as Cristina. These tracks continued in June.

May 17, 06Z:


May 25, 18Z:


May 26, 12Z:


May 27, 12Z:


May 27, 18Z:


May 28, 12Z:


May 28, 18Z:


May 29, 18Z:


May 30, 18Z:





May 31, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#21

This was related to Cristobal in the sense, that this was another TC expected to come from the same CAG setup. However, this is distinct. These tracks continued in June.

May 18, 12Z:


May 18, 18Z:


May 21, 12Z:


May 21, 18Z:


May 24, 06Z:


May 24, 12Z:


May 24, 18Z:


May 25, 06Z:


May 25, 18Z:


May 26, 06Z:


May 26, 12Z:





May 27, 18Z:


May 28, 12Z:


May 28, 18Z:


May 30, 12Z:


May 30, 18Z:


Ghost storm L#22

This system was Invest 92L, given 60% chance of (sub)tropical cyclogenesis by NHC.


May 21, 12Z:


May 27, 18Z:





May 28, 18Z:


May 29, 12Z:


System L#23

was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Cristobal.

Ghost storm L#24

This lone track is not identifiable.

May 26, 12Z:


Ghost storm L#25

These continued in June.

May 31, 12Z:


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