Verification of East Pacific ghost storm tracks of January-May 2020
I falsely detected (sub)tropical cyclogenesis in East Pacific (north of
equator and east of 140 degrees west) 126 times in January thru May of 2020. Additionally, false Atlantic cyclogenesis lead to crossover into the basin 11 times. Tracks were made of 28 systems.
In the calculations, crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is considered equal to dissipation.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 17 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 20 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 23 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 39 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 46 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 41 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 40 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 49 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 53 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 58 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 55 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 39 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 23 false detections.
Circle coloration scheme
January 27, 12Z:
January 28, 12Z:
January 29, 12Z:
January 30, 12Z:
January 31, 12Z:
February 10, 06Z:
February 28, 12Z:
March 2, 12Z:
February 28, 12Z:
March 2, 18Z:
March 3, 06Z:
March 3, 12Z:
March 3, 18Z:
March 4, 06Z:
March 5, 12Z:
March 6, 06Z:
March 7, 12Z:
March 18, 12Z:
March 19, 00Z:
March 19, 12Z:
March 20, 12Z:
March 20, 18Z:
March 21, 12Z:
April 19, 12Z:
April 20, 12Z:
April 21, 12Z:
Only those tracks with TC crossover into East Pacific, or regeneration in the basin, are shown here.
April 22, 06Z:
April 22, 12Z:
April 22, 18Z:
April 23, 06Z:
April 23, 18Z:
April 24, 06Z:
April 23, 12Z:
April 23, 18Z:
April 24, 12Z:
April 24, 18Z:
April 25, 12Z:
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 06Z:
April 26, 12Z:
April 26, 18Z:
April 27, 06Z:
April 27, 18Z:
April 28, 06Z:
April 25, 06Z:
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 18Z:
April 27, 12Z:
April 28, 18Z:
April 30, 06Z:
April 26, 18Z:
May 1, 06Z:
May 1, 12Z:
May 1, 18Z:
April 29, 18Z:
May 2, 06Z:
May 2, 18Z:
May 3, 06Z:
May 3, 12Z:
May 3, 18Z:
May 4, 12Z:
May 4, 18Z:
May 5, 06Z:
May 5, 12Z:
May 5, 18Z:
May 6, 06Z:
May 6, 12Z:
May 6, 18Z:
May 7, 06Z:
May 7, 12Z:
May 7, 18Z:
May 8, 06Z:
May 8, 12Z:
May 8, 18Z:
May 9, 06Z:
May 9, 12Z:
May 9, 18Z:
May 10, 12Z:
May 11, 06Z:
May 11, 12Z:
May 11, 18Z:
May 12, 06Z:
May 15, 18Z:
May 16, 06Z:
May 8, 06Z:
May 13, 12Z:
May 17, 12Z:
May 17, 18Z:
May 18, 06Z:
May 18, 12Z:
May 18, 18Z:
May 19, 06Z:
May 20, 06Z:
May 20, 12Z:
May 21, 06Z:
May 21, 12Z:
May 21, 18Z:
May 16, 06Z:
May 24, 12Z:
May 20, 06Z:
May 21, 06Z:
May 21, 12Z:
May 21, 18Z:
May 22, 06Z:
May 23, 06Z:
May 24, 06Z:
May 24, 12Z:
May 24, 18Z:
May 25, 06Z:
May 26, 12Z:
May 27, 18Z:
May 25, 06Z:
May 25, 18Z:
May 26, 12Z:
May 27, 18Z:
May 28, 18Z:
May 29, 18Z:
May 30, 18Z:
May 31, 12Z:
May 30, 12Z:
In the calculations, crossover from Atlantic as a tropical cyclone is considered equal to formation. Exiting the East Pacific tracking map through its left edge is considered equal to dissipation.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there was 1 false detection.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there was 3 false detections.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 4 false detections.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 8 false detections.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 7 false detections.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 12 false detections.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 11 false detections.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 17 false detections.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 20 false detections.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 23 false detections.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 39 false detections.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 46 false detections.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 41 false detections.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 40 false detections.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 49 false detections.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 53 false detections.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 58 false detections.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 55 false detections.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 39 false detections.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 23 false detections.
Circle coloration scheme
Ghost storm E#01
January 9, 12Z:Ghost storm E#02
January 23, 12Z:Ghost storm E#03
This became an area of disorganized convection.January 27, 12Z:
January 28, 12Z:
January 29, 12Z:
January 30, 12Z:
January 31, 12Z:
February 10, 06Z:
Ghost storm E#04
February 1, 12Z:Ghost storm E#05
February 13, 12Z:Ghost storm E#06
February 24, 12Z:Ghost storm E#07
February 26, 12Z:February 28, 12Z:
March 2, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#08
February 26, 12Z:February 28, 12Z:
March 3, 06Z:
March 3, 12Z:
March 3, 18Z:
March 4, 06Z:
March 5, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#09
March 6, 06Z:
March 7, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#10
March 18, 00Z:March 18, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#11
March 18, 12Z:March 19, 00Z:
March 19, 12Z:
March 20, 12Z:
March 20, 18Z:
March 21, 12Z:
System E#12
was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was TD 1-E.
System E#13
was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was (also) TD 1-E.
Ghost storm E#14
April 19, 12Z:
April 20, 12Z:
April 21, 12Z:
Ghost storm L#12
Only those tracks with TC crossover into East Pacific, or regeneration in the basin, are shown here.
April 22, 06Z:
April 22, 12Z:
April 22, 18Z:
April 23, 06Z:
April 23, 18Z:
April 24, 06Z:
Ghost storm E#15
April 23, 06Z:April 23, 12Z:
April 23, 18Z:
April 24, 12Z:
April 24, 18Z:
April 25, 12Z:
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 06Z:
April 26, 12Z:
April 26, 18Z:
April 27, 06Z:
April 27, 18Z:
April 28, 06Z:
Ghost storm E#16
April 25, 06Z:
April 25, 18Z:
April 26, 18Z:
April 27, 12Z:
April 28, 18Z:
April 30, 06Z:
Ghost storm L#13
Only the tracks with a TC crossover into East Pacific, or a regeneration in the basin, are shown here.April 26, 18Z:
May 1, 06Z:
May 1, 12Z:
May 1, 18Z:
Ghost storm E#17
April 29, 12Z:April 29, 18Z:
Ghost storm E#18
May 1, 06Z:May 2, 06Z:
May 2, 18Z:
May 3, 06Z:
May 3, 12Z:
May 3, 18Z:
May 4, 12Z:
May 4, 18Z:
May 5, 06Z:
May 5, 12Z:
May 5, 18Z:
May 6, 06Z:
May 6, 12Z:
May 6, 18Z:
May 7, 06Z:
May 7, 12Z:
May 7, 18Z:
May 8, 06Z:
May 8, 12Z:
May 8, 18Z:
May 9, 06Z:
May 9, 12Z:
May 9, 18Z:
May 10, 12Z:
May 11, 06Z:
May 11, 12Z:
May 11, 18Z:
Ghost storm E#19
May 5, 12Z:May 12, 06Z:
May 15, 18Z:
May 16, 06Z:
Ghost storm E#20
May 7, 12Z:Ghost storm L#13
This Atlantic system had only one track, and it had regeneration in East Pacific.May 8, 06Z:
Ghost storm E#21
May 12, 06Z:May 13, 12Z:
May 17, 12Z:
May 17, 18Z:
May 18, 06Z:
May 18, 12Z:
May 18, 18Z:
May 19, 06Z:
May 20, 06Z:
May 20, 12Z:
May 21, 06Z:
May 21, 12Z:
May 21, 18Z:
System E#22
was not a ghost storm. Rather, it was Amanda.
Ghost storm E#23
May 16, 06Z:
Ghost storm E#24
May 18, 12Z:May 24, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#25
This was based on the idea, that the Central American Gyre, which spawned Amanda, would have had another spin capable of tropical cyclogenesis.May 20, 06Z:
May 21, 06Z:
May 21, 12Z:
May 21, 18Z:
May 22, 06Z:
May 23, 06Z:
May 24, 06Z:
May 24, 12Z:
May 24, 18Z:
May 25, 06Z:
May 26, 12Z:
May 27, 18Z:
Ghost storm E#26
May 25, 06Z:
May 25, 18Z:
May 26, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#27
This eventually became Invest 92E. Most of these tracks were made in June.May 27, 18Z:
May 28, 18Z:
May 29, 18Z:
May 30, 18Z:
May 31, 12Z:
Ghost storm E#28
May 29, 12Z:May 30, 12Z:
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