Verification of tracks made of Edouard

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Edouard, before or after it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. Instead, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were 19 instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Let the crow enter my mouth!

Due to lack of tracks, position comparisons aren't possible regardless of best track data period.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

Statistics about formation or dissipation times aren't applicable.

In the 19 cases (0 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 19 complete misses), range, average and median of peak intensity was Category -2.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.


The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

June 15, 00Z
June 15, 12Z
June 15, 18Z
June 16, 12Z
June 17, 06Z

June 17, 18Z
June 18, 06Z
June 18, 12Z
June 19, 06Z
June 20. 06Z

June 21, 06Z
June 21, 12Z
June 22, 06Z
June 23, 12Z
June 24, 06Z

June 25, 06Z
June 26, 06Z
June 28, 18Z
June 29, 12Z