Verification of tracks made of TD 4-E
I made 18 tracks of Tropical Depression Four-E, before it was assessed as
a tropical cyclone. I made no tracks after that point.
Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances,
when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Detection rate was good. Unsurprisingly for a weak, short-lived system, longevity and peak intensity were mostly overestimated.
As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 27, 00Z thru June 30, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 18 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 26, 18Z and July 5, 18Z. Average was June 29, 05Z and median was June 29, 06Z.
In the 22 cases (18 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical depression would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category 0.14 and median was Category 0.
In the 18 tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between June 30, 12Z and July 16, 06Z. Average was July 4, 19Z and median was July 3, 15Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 39 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 244 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 226 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 156 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 217 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 297 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 227 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 253 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 371 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 435 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 369 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 9 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 526 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 7 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
June 13, 12Z:
June 15, 00Z:
June 15, 12Z:
June 15, 18Z:
June 16, 12Z:
June 17, 06Z:
June 17, 18Z:
June 18, 06Z:
June 18, 12Z:
June 19, 06Z:
June 20, 06Z:
June 21, 06Z:
June 21, 12Z:
June 22, 06Z:
June 23, 12Z:
June 24, 06Z:
June 28, 18Z:
June 29, 12Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
June 10, 12Z
June 10, 18Z
June 25, 06Z
June 26, 06Z
As of this analysis, best track positions are available June 27, 00Z thru June 30, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.
Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".
In the 18 tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between June 26, 18Z and July 5, 18Z. Average was June 29, 05Z and median was June 29, 06Z.
In the 22 cases (18 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical depression would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category 0.14 and median was Category 0.
In the 18 tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between June 30, 12Z and July 16, 06Z. Average was July 4, 19Z and median was July 3, 15Z.
At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 39 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 244 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 5 available position comparisons produce an average error of 226 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 156 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 217 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 3 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 297 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 227 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 253 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 371 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 435 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 369 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 6 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 9 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 526 nautical miles.
At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 7 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 5 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 4 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.
Circle coloration scheme
Here are the tracks once again.
June 13, 12Z:
June 15, 00Z:
June 15, 12Z:
June 15, 18Z:
June 16, 12Z:
June 17, 06Z:
June 17, 18Z:
June 18, 06Z:
June 18, 12Z:
June 19, 06Z:
June 20, 06Z:
June 21, 06Z:
June 21, 12Z:
June 22, 06Z:
June 23, 12Z:
June 24, 06Z:
June 28, 18Z:
June 29, 12Z:
The complete misses were from the following model cycles:
June 10, 12Z
June 10, 18Z
June 25, 06Z
June 26, 06Z
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