Verification of tracks made of Kyle

I made no tracks of Tropical Storm Kyle, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one track after that point. Within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were fourteen instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. I'm going to ensure the extinction of crow!

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 13, 06Z thru August 16, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

Statistics about formation time are not applicable.

In the 15 cases (1 track, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 14 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 1. Average was Category -1.80 and median was Category -2.

In the one track (made before operationally recognized extratropical transition), range, average and median of dissipation time was August 17, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 26 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here is the track once again.

August 15, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 26, 12Z
July 27, 12Z
July 28, 06Z
July 29, 12Z
July 31, 06Z

August 1, 06Z
August 2, 12Z
August 4, 18Z
August 5, 18Z
August 6, 12Z

August 6, 18Z
August 9, 06Z
August 10, 12Z
August 12, 12Z