Verification of tracks made of Marco

I made five tracks of Hurricane Marco, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eight instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Intensification to hurricane was consistently missed.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 15, 00Z thru August 25, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 16, 18Z and August 22, 18Z. Average was August 19, 18Z and median was August 19, 00Z.

In the 13 cases (5 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 1 would remain the peak intensity, and 8 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 0. Average was Category -1.38 and median was Category -2.

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between August 17, 18Z and August 26, 12Z. Average was August 22, 14Z and median was August 22, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 29 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 150 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 342 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 459 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 323 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 396 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1234 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 5 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 31, 06Z:

August 2, 12Z:

August 4, 18Z:

August 18, 12Z:

August 20, 06Z:

August 24, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 1, 06Z
August 5, 18Z
August 6, 12Z
August 6, 18Z
August 9, 06Z

August 10, 12Z
August 12, 12Z
August 15, 06Z