Verification of tracks made of Alpha

I made two tracks of Subtropical Storm Alpha, before it was assessed as a subtropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 14, 12Z thru September 19, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 16, 18Z and September 18, 18Z. Average and median were September 17, 18Z.

In the six cases (2 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that (sub)tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 0. Average was Category -1.50 and median was Category -2.

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between September 18, 00Z and September 19, 06Z. Average and median were September 18, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 8 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

September 12, 06Z:

September 16, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

August 30, 06Z
August 31, 06Z
September 3, 06Z
September 6, 06Z