Verification of tracks made of Beta

December 18, 2020

I made three tracks of Tropical Storm Beta, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were four instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. Originally the cyclogenesis area was predicted to be much too far southeast.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 15, 12Z thru September 25, 06Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 16, 18Z and September 20, 18Z. Average was September 18, 14Z and median was September 18, 06Z.

In the seven cases (3 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 4 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 3. Average was Category -0.71 and median was Category -2.

In the four tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant), dissipation times ranged between September 20, 18Z and September 25, 00Z. Average was September 22, 20Z and median was September 22, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 53 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 56 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 167 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 293 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 347 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 342 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 159 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparisons produce an average error of 281 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 843 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 871 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 459 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 499 nautical miles.

Circle coloration scheme