Verification of tracks made of Elida

I made five tracks of Hurricane Elida, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made three more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were ten instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The tracks were consistently too far south, and cyclogenesis was too late.

As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available August 6, 18Z thru August 14, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 9, 06Z and August 11, 00Z. Average was August 10, 05Z and median was August 10, 06Z.

In the seventeen cases (7 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 2 would remain the peak intensity, and 10 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 4. Average was Category -0.65 and median was Category -2.

In the eight tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between August 12, 12Z and August 22, 06Z. Average was August 15, 11Z and median was August 14, 09Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 43 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 96 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 182 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 245 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 347 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 4 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 367 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 4 available position comparisons produce an average error of 444 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 427 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 511 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 287 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 213 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 97 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

July 24, 12Z:

August 4, 18Z:

August 5, 18Z:

August 6, 12Z:

August 6, 18Z:

August 9, 06Z:

August 10, 12Z:

August 12, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 20, 06Z
July 22, 06Z
July 23, 12Z
July 26, 12Z
July 27, 12Z

July 28, 06Z
July 29, 12Z
July 31, 06Z
August 1, 06Z
August 2, 12Z