Verification of tracks made of Fausto

I made six tracks of Tropical Storm Fausto, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were eight instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

Exiting the margin of East Pacific tracking map through left edge (about 164 W) is considered equal to dissipation for the purposes of this verification.

Invest 93E and Invest 94E were competing low level centers on the same trough. Eventually it was 94E, that became a tropical cyclone (Fausto). Since they were so closely related, for the purposes of this verification, tracks will be considered to depict Fausto, even if they correspond more closely to 93E.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available August 12, 00Z thru August 17, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between August 14, 00Z and August 16, 00Z. Average was August 14, 23Z and median was August 14, 18Z.

In the fourteen cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 8 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 5. Average was Category -0.21 and median was Category -2.

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between August 17, 06Z and August 29, 06Z. Average was August 21, 16Z and median was August 19, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 42 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 381 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 225 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 263 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 314 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 280 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 321 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 464 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 426 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 486 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 686 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

August 6, 12Z:

August 6, 18Z:

August 9, 06Z:

August 10, 12Z:

August 12, 12Z:

August 15, 06Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

July 27, 12Z
July 28, 06Z
July 29, 12Z
July 31, 06Z
August 1, 06Z

August 2, 12Z
August 4, 18Z
August 5, 18Z