Verification of tracks made of TD 6-E

I made six tracks of Tropical Depression Six-E, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made no more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were six instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available July 9, 18Z thru July 14, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 11, 12Z and July 14, 06Z. Average was July 13, 07Z and median was July 13, 12Z.

In the twelve cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical depression would remain the peak intensity, and 6 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 5. Average was Category -0.08 and median was Category -1.5.

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration), dissipation times ranged between July 16, 00Z and July 22, 00Z. Average was July 18, 16Z and median was July 19, 00Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 85 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 164 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 257 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 302 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 196 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 249 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 245 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 299 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme


Here are the tracks once again.

June 28, 18Z:


June 29, 12Z:


July 7, 12Z:


July 8, 06Z:


July 12, 12Z:


July 13, 12Z:


The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

June 23, 12Z
June 24, 06Z
June 25, 06Z
June 26, 06Z
July 10, 06Z

July 11, 12Z

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