Verification of tracks made of Teddy

December 15, 2020

I made three tracks of Hurricane Teddy, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made two more tracks after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were five instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 10, 06Z thru September 24, 00Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 11, 06Z and September 16, 12Z. Average was September 13, 12Z and median was September 12, 18Z.

In the nine cases (4 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that Category 4 would remain the peak intensity, and 5 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.67 and median was Category -2.

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized extratropical transition), dissipation times ranged between September 22, 18Z and September 29, 06Z. Average was September 25, 11Z and median was September 25, 18Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 3 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 58 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 71 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 118 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 225 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 243 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 311 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 547 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 754 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 502 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 632 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 680 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 706 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 850 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 936 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1061 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 3 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1333 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 1453 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1199 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 4 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1572 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 5 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 1754 nautical miles.

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