Verification of tracks made of Theta

I made two tracks of Tropical Storm Theta, before it was assessed as a subtropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely. The detections were at short lead times, and they assumed only a subtropical cyclone.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available November 7, 18Z thru November 15, 12Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the two tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between November 9, 12Z and November 10, 00Z. Average and median were November 9, 18Z.

In the nine cases (2 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and  Category 0. Average was Category -1.56 and median was Category -2.

In the three tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between November 14, 18Z and November 15, 12Z. Average was November 15, 04Z and median was November 15, 06Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 26 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 61 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 114 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 139 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 138 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 74 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 4 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme

Here are the tracks once again.

November 8, 18Z:

November 9, 12Z:

November 11, 12Z:

The complete misses were from the following model cycles:

October 22, 12Z
October 24, 12Z
October 27, 00Z
October 28, 06Z
October 30, 12Z

October 31, 06Z
November 3, 06Z