Verification of tracks made of an unnamed tropical storm (07E)

December 27, 2020

I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Seven-E, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were seven instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, tropical cyclone report or best track positions are available July 17, 18Z thru July 21, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between July 15, 12Z and July 21, 00Z. Average was July 19, 12Z and median was July 20, 12Z.

In the thirteen cases (6 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 7 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 1. Average was Category -1.08 and median was Category -2.

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant low), dissipation times ranged between July 20, 00Z and July 25, 06Z. Average was July 22, 23Z and median was July 23, 12Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 35 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 102 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 136 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 179 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 3 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 50 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 544 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 367 nautical miles.

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