Verification of tracks made of Vicky

December 16, 2020

I made five tracks of Tropical Storm Vicky, before it was assessed as a tropical cyclone. I made one more track after that point. Additionally, within 480 hours of cyclogenesis, there were two instances, when I missed cyclogenesis entirely.

As of this analysis, best track positions are available September 11, 12Z thru September 17, 18Z, and as such, position comparisons are possible only for this timespan.

Since I give only SSHS categories in my tracks, I don't calculate intensity errors in units of speed, but in categories. For this purpose, I define tropical or subtropical storms as "Category 0", tropical or subtropical depressions as "Category -1" and non-existence of a tropical or subtropical cyclone as "Category -2".

In the five tracks (made before operationally recognized cyclogenesis), formation times ranged between September 10, 12Z and September 14, 18Z. Average was September 11, 23Z and median was September 11, 12Z.

In the seven cases (5 tracks, before the tracks and data agreed, that tropical storm would remain the peak intensity, and 2 complete misses), peak intensity ranged between Category -2 and Category 5. Average was Category 0.43 and median was Category 0.

In the six tracks (made before operationally recognized degeneration into remnant), dissipation times ranged between September 14, 18Z and September 27, 00Z. Average was September 19, 15Z and median was September 17, 15Z.

At the lead time of 1 day (24 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 2 days (48 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 3 days (72 hours), there were 1 hit, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 85 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 4 days (96 hours), there were 0 hits, 0 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 5 days (120 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 6 days (144 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 109 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 7 days (168 hours), there were 0 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 138 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 8 days (192 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 166 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 9 days (216 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 237 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 10 days (240 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 363 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 11 days (264 hours), there were 2 hits, 0 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 430 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 12 days (288 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 337 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 13 days (312 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 372 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 14 days (336 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 0 misses. 3 available position comparisons produce an average error of 360 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 15 days (360 hours), there were 1 hit, 2 false detections and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 232 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 16 days (384 hours), there were 2 hits, 1 false detection and 1 miss. 2 available position comparisons produce an average error of 242 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 17 days (408 hours), there were 1 hit, 1 false detection and 2 misses. 1 available position comparison produces an average error of 229 nautical miles.

At the lead time of 18 days (432 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 3 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 19 days (456 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 2 misses. No available position comparisons.

At the lead time of 20 days (480 hours), there were 0 hits, 2 false detections and 1 miss. No available position comparisons.

Circle coloration scheme